About the Research
The information presented on these webpages represent research efforts toward improving prediction of tropical cyclone formation. These resources are NOT official forecasts; users should always refer to the government agencies at the bottom of the page for making decisions.
Our efforts focus on analyzing historical tropical disturbances - both those that developed into tropical cyclones and those that did not - using operationally derived satellite intensity estimates (via the Dvorak technique). Based on the development rate of these past systems and comparing that to their satellite-derived intensities, we created a climatological model of the likelihood of current tropical cyclone formation.
These forecasts depend on real-time Dvorak satellite analysis. Our forecasts will not show current tropical disturbances if Dvorak intensity information is not available.
To examine some of the historical data, see the "CLIMATOLOGY" section on the Navigation bar to the left. For further questions and guidance on using this website, see the "HELP/FAQ" section also located there. Additional tropical cyclogenesis tools from numerical weather prediction (model) data are available through the web links at the top of the page.
For a more in-depth review, please refer to the following peer-reviewed literature:
Cossuth, Joshua H., Richard D. Knabb, Daniel P. Brown, Robert E. Hart, 2013: Tropical Cyclone Formation Guidance Using Pregenesis Dvorak Climatology. Part I: Operational Forecasting and Predictive Potential. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 100–118.
Cossuth, Joshua H., Richard D. Knabb, Daniel P. Brown, Robert E. Hart, 2013: Tropical Cyclone Formation Guidance Using Pregenesis Dvorak Climatology. Part II: Spatio-Temporal Analysis. Wea. Forecasting, in preparation.