Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Oct 12 09:50:04 UTC 2024
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
13L-LESLIE | 1 | Europe (12%) @ 5.7 days | Azores (5% △) @ 3.8 days | |
2 | Azores (9% ▲) @ 3.8 days | Mississippi (1% ▽) | |
3 | Tennessee (1% ▽) | Louisiana (1% ▽) | |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (51% △) @ 54 hr | Philippines (31%) @ 54 hr | Philippines (16%) @ 54 hr |
2 | China (33% ▲) @ 4.5 days | China (15%) @ 4.5 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 3.4 days |
3 | Vietnam (15%) @ 5.9 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 3.4 days | China (1%) @ 4.5 days |
|
94L-INVEST | 1 | Europe (12% △) @ 9.9 days | Bahamas Islands (4%) | Bahamas Islands (4%) |
2 | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (6%) @ 9.2 days | North Carolina (3%) | Georgia (2%) |
3 | Georgia (4%) | South Carolina (2%) | Florida (2%) |
|
95A-INVEST | 1 | India (30%) @ 3.3 days | India (6% ▽) @ 3.3 days | India (3% ▼) @ 3.3 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.