Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Mon Nov 4 10:49:31 UTC 2024
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
17L-PATTY | 1 | Europe (28% ▲▲) @ 31 hr | | |
2 | Azores (2% ▼▼) | | |
|
18L-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (42% ▲) @ 3.6 days | Mexico (18% △) @ 3.6 days | Cuba (10% ▽) @ 3.4 days |
2 | Honduras (27%) @ 53 hr | Honduras (14%) @ 53 hr | Louisiana (5%) @ 6.7 days |
3 | Belize (26% ▲) @ 61 hr | Cuba (14%) @ 3.4 days | Texas (4%) @ 6.5 days |
|
24W-YINXING | 1 | Philippines (53%) @ 69 hr | Philippines (34%) @ 69 hr | Philippines (17%) @ 69 hr |
2 | China (26%) @ 5.5 days | China (12%) @ 5.5 days | Vietnam (1%) @ 6.9 days |
3 | Vietnam (15%) @ 6.9 days | Taiwan (4%) @ 4.3 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 4.3 days |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (13% ▽) @ 9.5 days | Guam or w/i 1deg (8% ▲) @ 4.8 days | Philippines (2% ▼) @ 9.5 days |
2 | Guam or w/i 1deg (13% ▲) @ 4.8 days | Japan (6% △) | |
3 | Japan (8% ▲) | Philippines (5% ▼) @ 9.5 days | |
|
93E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (2%) @ 10 days | | |
2 | Hawaii (1%) | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.