Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Thu Sep 21 06:49:29 UTC 2023
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
| Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity |
| 13E-KENNETH | 1 | Hawaii (2%) @ 5.5 days | | |
| 2 | Mexico (1%) @ 53 hr | | |
|
| 15L-NIGEL | 1 | Europe (34% ▲▲) @ 4.3 days | | |
| 2 | Iceland (6% △) @ 3.5 days | | |
| 3 | Greenland (2%) | | |
|
| 96E-INVEST | 1 | Hawaii (2%) | Hawaii (2%) | Hawaii (2%) |
|
| 96W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (16%) @ 8.1 days | Japan (7%) @ 8.1 days | Taiwan (2%) |
| 2 | Philippines (8% △) @ 6.8 days | Philippines (6%) @ 6.8 days | Japan (1%) @ 8.1 days |
| 3 | China (6% △) @ 10 days | China (3% △) @ 10 days | |
|
| 98A-INVEST | 1 | India (68% ▼▼) @ 7 hr | India (6% ▽) @ 7 hr | India (3% △) @ 7 hr |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
