Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2021051112 ECMWF: 2021051118 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2021051118 JMA: 2021051118
NAVGEM: 2021051112 UKMET: 2021051112

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep012021:2021051112 io922021:2021051106
sh992021:2021051012 wp962021:2021051118

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2021051118 | 2021051112 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2021051112 | 2021051100 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2021051112 | 2021051100 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2021051112 | 2021051100 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2021051112 | 2021051100 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed May 12 02:37:22 UTC 2021