Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2021073000 ECMWF: 2021073000 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2021073000 JMA: 2021073000
NAVGEM: 2021073000 UKMET: 2021073000

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
in-fa09w:2021072918 invest90e:2021073000
invest99e:2021073000

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest90e:2021073000 invest99e:2021073000

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep902021:2021073006 ep992021:2021073006
wp092021:2021072912 wp952021:2021073000

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2021073000 | 2021072918 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2021072912 | 2021072900 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2021073000 | 2021072912 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2021072912 | 2021072900 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2021072912 | 2021072900 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Fri Jul 30 11:08:34 UTC 2021