Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2020080800 ECMWF: 2020080800 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2020080806 JMA: 2020080806
NAVGEM: 2020080800 UKMET: 2020080800

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest94w:2020080800

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep912020:2020080806 io962020:2020080718
wp052020:2020080806 wp942020:2020080800
wp952020:2020080800

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2020080806 | 2020080800 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2020080400 | 2020080312 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2020080400 | 2020080312 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2020080712 | 2020080700 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2020080400 | 2020080312 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Sat Aug 8 12:22:12 UTC 2020