Tropical Cyclone Maximum Potential Intensity Forecasts Description Tropical Cyclone Maximum Potential Intensity Forecasts Description

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) forecasts are derived using various global operational forecasts.
The TC MPI is calculated using Dr. Kerry Emanuel's method which is described here. The following variables are obtained
from the global operational forecasts:

  • Relative humidity
  • Pressure reduced to mean sea-level
  • Temperature

    Sea-surface temperature (SST) data is obtained from NCEP 0.5° Real-Time-Global (RTG) daily SST and is fixed for the
    duration of the forecast. Forecasts extend from the global analysis initialization out to 5 days (120 hours).

    Forecasts commence twice daily using global operational analyses and forecasts at 0000 and 1200 UTC.

    The pressure levels for which data available from each analysis is defined below:

    Pressure Level (hPa)NOGAPSGFS/AVNCMCGLBUKMET
    1000
    975
    950
    925
    900
    850
    800
    750
    700
    650
    600
    550
    500
    450
    400
    350
    300
    250
    200
    150
    100
    70
    50
    30
    20
    10

    Global analysis pressure level data availability. Each green box indicates that data is available on the pressure
    surface for the respective analysis. A red box means that data is not available.

    WARNING: These forecasts are experimental and are not intended to be a substitute for official forecasts obtained via the
    National Weather Service and/or The National Hurricane Center.

    Questions regarding this page should be forward to Henry R. Winterbottom.