GFS Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Track Normalized Spread

Robert Hart and Lindsey Day, Florida State University

This page plots GFS Ensemble (GEFS) mean forecast track, the normalized spread of that ensemble compared to a 2004-2011 GEFS climatology,
and the individual ensemble members contributing to that spread. More detailed documentation of this project can be found in the links below.

[ Main Page | Documentation | Disclaimer | References and Acknowledgments ]

References:

Day, L., 2013: Climatological and Synoptic Patterns of Atlantic Hurricanes Categorized by GFS Track Ensemble Spread and Error. M.S. Thesis. Florida State University.

Hauke, M.D., 2006: Evaluating Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Track Error Distributions Based on Forecast Confidence. M.S. Thesis. Naval Postgraduate School. 105pp.

Acknowledgments:

The authors of this page are grateful for the constructive feedback provided by Philip Sura, Guosheng Liu, Jon Ahlquist, Josh Cossuth, Dan Halperin, Ryan Truchelut, and Andy Hazelton.

GEFS track data are from the NHC ATCF.