Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Fri Jul 4 01:48:16 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04W-MUN | 1 | Japan (12%) @ 3.4 days | Japan (4%) @ 3.4 days | China (1%) @ 6.9 days |
2 | China (4%) @ 6.9 days | China (2%) @ 6.9 days | |
3 | Taiwan (1%) | | |
|
06E-FLOSSIE | 1 | Mexico (21% ▼▼) @ 47 hr | Mexico (6% ▼) @ 47 hr | Mexico (1%) @ 47 hr |
2 | California (2%) @ 55 hr | | |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | China (57% ▲) @ 66 hr | China (23% △) @ 66 hr | Philippines (3% ▼) @ 40 hr |
2 | Philippines (31% ▼) @ 40 hr | Philippines (13% ▼) @ 40 hr | China (3%) @ 66 hr |
3 | Vietnam (18% ▲) @ 4.4 days | Taiwan (6% ▼) @ 55 hr | Taiwan (1% ▼) @ 55 hr |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.