Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Wed Jul 2 00:48:21 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04W-FOUR | 1 | Japan (12%) @ 4.0 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 5.3 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 5.3 days |
2 | China (4%) @ 6.9 days | Japan (2%) @ 4.0 days | |
3 | Taiwan (2%) @ 5.3 days | China (2%) @ 6.9 days | |
|
06E-FLOSSIE | 1 | Mexico (36% △) @ 45 hr | Mexico (16%) @ 45 hr | Mexico (3%) @ 45 hr |
2 | California (1%) @ 4.4 days | | |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (66% ▲▲) @ 21 hr | Philippines (39% ▲) @ 21 hr | Philippines (17%) @ 21 hr |
2 | China (43% △) @ 3.5 days | China (15%) @ 3.5 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 62 hr |
3 | Vietnam (18% △) @ 4.8 days | Taiwan (6% ▽) @ 62 hr | China (1%) @ 3.5 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.