Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.
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Last updated: Wed Jun 19 12:48:41 UTC 2013
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:
Storm Rank Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-LEEPI 1 China (36%) in 61 hours Taiwan (17%↑) in 30 hours Taiwan (8%) in 30 hours
WPAC-LEEPI 2 Taiwan (25%↑) in 30 hours China (13%↓) in 61 hours China (3%) in 61 hours
WPAC-LEEPI 3 Japan (17%↑) in 3.1 days Japan (8%↑) in 3.1 days Japan (1%) in 3.1 days
AL02-TWO 1 Mexico (85%↓↓) in 44 hours Mexico (15%) in 44 hours Texas (2%↓) in 3.1 days
AL02-TWO 2 Texas (10%↑) in 3.1 days Texas (3%↓) in 3.1 days
AL02-TWO 3 Florida (9%↑) in 3.9 days Louisiana (1%) in 69 hours
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.
[ MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]
Last updated: Wed Jun 19 12:48:41 UTC 2013
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:
| Rank | Any Intensity | Hurricane Intensity | Hurricane Intensity | |
| WPAC-LEEPI | ||||
| WPAC-LEEPI | ||||
| WPAC-LEEPI | ||||
| AL02-TWO | ||||
| AL02-TWO | ||||
| AL02-TWO | ||||
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:
