Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Jul 15 19:49:21 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
08W-EIGHT | 1 | Japan (19%) | Japan (4%) | |
|
93L-INVEST | 1 | North Carolina (56% ▲) @ 38 hr | North Carolina (15% ▽) @ 38 hr | Georgia (2%) @ 13 hr |
2 | Florida (53% ▲▲) @ 9 hr | Florida (10%) @ 9 hr | South Carolina (1%) @ 26 hr |
3 | Georgia (41% ▲▲) @ 13 hr | South Carolina (9%) @ 26 hr | North Carolina (1%) @ 38 hr |
|
96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (45% △) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (30%) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (15%) @ 3.0 days |
2 | China (27%) @ 5.5 days | China (15%) @ 5.5 days | China (3%) @ 5.5 days |
3 | Vietnam (14%) @ 6.9 days | Taiwan (4%) @ 4.4 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 4.4 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.