Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Mon Jun 30 20:48:52 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
06E-FLOSSIE | 1 | Mexico (37% ▽) @ 60 hr | Mexico (17% ▽) @ 60 hr | Mexico (2%) @ 60 hr |
2 | California (1%) | | |
|
90W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (17%) @ 6.1 days | Japan (9%) @ 6.1 days | Taiwan (4% △) @ 7.0 days |
2 | China (11% △) @ 8.0 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 7.0 days | Philippines (2%) @ 5.1 days |
3 | Taiwan (5%) @ 7.0 days | China (4%) @ 8.0 days | Japan (2%) @ 6.1 days |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (64% ▲▲) @ 38 hr | Philippines (36% ▲) @ 38 hr | Philippines (17% △) @ 38 hr |
2 | China (37% ▲) @ 4.3 days | China (15%) @ 4.3 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 3.2 days |
3 | Vietnam (18% △) @ 5.4 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 3.2 days | China (1%) @ 4.3 days |
|
99W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (20% △) @ 5.6 days | Japan (13%) @ 5.6 days | Philippines (2%) |
2 | China (10%) @ 6.6 days | Philippines (4%) | Japan (2%) @ 5.6 days |
3 | Philippines (5% △) | Taiwan (3%) | Taiwan (1%) |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.