Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Jun 7 00:48:51 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
91E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (3%) | Mexico (2%) | |
|
92E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (21%) @ 4.1 days | Mexico (9%) @ 4.1 days | Mexico (1%) @ 4.1 days |
2 | California (3%) | | |
3 | Texas (1%) | | |
|
92W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (71%) @ 34 hr | Philippines (37%) @ 34 hr | Philippines (16%) @ 34 hr |
2 | China (34%) @ 4.6 days | China (14%) @ 4.6 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 3.4 days |
3 | Vietnam (21%) @ 5.6 days | Vietnam (3%) @ 5.6 days | China (1%) @ 4.6 days |
|
93W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (37% ▽) @ 4.0 days | Philippines (27%) @ 4.0 days | Philippines (17%) @ 4.0 days |
2 | China (24%) @ 6.4 days | China (14%) @ 6.4 days | China (3%) @ 6.4 days |
3 | Japan (14% △) @ 7.4 days | Japan (6% △) @ 7.4 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 4.6 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.