Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Jun 28 15:48:54 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
91L-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (85% ▽) @ 45 hr | Mexico (16% ▽) @ 45 hr | Mexico (1%) @ 45 hr |
2 | Texas (9% ▽) @ 3.6 days | Texas (3%) @ 3.6 days | |
3 | Louisiana (9% ▼) @ 3.9 days | Louisiana (1%) @ 3.9 days | |
|
95E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (40% ▽) @ 3.5 days | Mexico (18% ▲) @ 3.5 days | Mexico (4%) @ 3.5 days |
2 | Texas (2%) @ 5.2 days | Louisiana (1%) | |
3 | Mississippi (1%) | | |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (26%) @ 3.8 days | Philippines (18%) @ 3.8 days | Philippines (10% ▽) @ 3.8 days |
2 | China (20%) @ 6.2 days | Japan (10% △) @ 6.4 days | Taiwan (3%) @ 4.2 days |
3 | Japan (16%) @ 6.4 days | China (10%) @ 6.2 days | China (2%) @ 6.2 days |
|
99W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (15%) @ 7.6 days | Japan (7%) @ 7.6 days | Philippines (2%) @ 5.4 days |
2 | Philippines (9%) @ 5.4 days | Philippines (6%) @ 5.4 days | Japan (2%) @ 7.6 days |
3 | China (8%) @ 7.8 days | Taiwan (3%) @ 6.3 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 6.3 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.