Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Jul 5 20:48:56 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
03L-CHANTAL | 1 | North Carolina (73%) @ 25 hr | North Carolina (23%) @ 25 hr | North Carolina (5%) @ 25 hr |
2 | South Carolina (33%) @ 18 hr | South Carolina (13%) @ 18 hr | South Carolina (3%) @ 18 hr |
3 | Virginia (22%) @ 42 hr | New York State (3%) @ 48 hr | |
|
04W-MUN | 1 | Japan (2%) @ 53 hr | | |
|
05W-DANAS | 1 | China (62%) @ 58 hr | China (23%) @ 58 hr | China (4%) @ 58 hr |
2 | Vietnam (14%) @ 4.7 days | Taiwan (6%) @ 47 hr | Taiwan (2%) @ 47 hr |
3 | Hong Kong (14%) @ 39 hr | Hong Kong (6%) @ 39 hr | Japan (1%) @ 68 hr |
|
96E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (16% ▽) @ 3.5 days | Mexico (7% ▽) @ 3.5 days | Mexico (1%) @ 3.5 days |
2 | California (2%) @ 5.8 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.