Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Thu Jul 3 01:48:18 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04W-FOUR | 1 | Japan (13% △) @ 3.3 days | Japan (4%) @ 3.3 days | China (1%) @ 6.3 days |
2 | China (6% △) @ 6.3 days | China (2%) @ 6.3 days | |
3 | Taiwan (1%) | | |
|
06E-FLOSSIE | 1 | Mexico (31% ▲) @ 46 hr | Mexico (13%) @ 46 hr | Mexico (1%) @ 46 hr |
2 | California (2%) @ 3.8 days | | |
3 | Texas (1%) @ 45 hr | | |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (56%) @ 9 hr | Philippines (31% ▽) @ 9 hr | Philippines (14% ▽) @ 9 hr |
2 | China (53% ▲) @ 68 hr | China (22% ▲) @ 68 hr | Taiwan (5% △) @ 44 hr |
3 | Taiwan (18% ▲) @ 44 hr | Taiwan (13% △) @ 44 hr | China (3%) @ 68 hr |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.