Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Oct 21 20:50:28 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04S-CHENGE | 1 | Madagascar (26% ▽) @ 4.3 days | Madagascar (5%) @ 4.3 days | Madagascar (2%) @ 4.3 days |
|
13L-MELISSA | 1 | Mexico (40%) @ 3.5 days | Nicaragua (20%) @ 58 hr | Cuba (11%) @ 4.0 days |
2 | Belize (28%) @ 3.0 days | Mexico (19%) @ 3.5 days | Mexico (7%) @ 3.5 days |
3 | Nicaragua (26%) @ 58 hr | Cuba (19%) @ 4.0 days | Bahamas Islands (7%) @ 6.5 days |
|
30W-FENGSHEN | 1 | Vietnam (51%) @ 44 hr | China (12%) @ 51 hr | Japan (1%) @ 4.7 days |
2 | China (35%) @ 51 hr | Vietnam (11%) @ 44 hr | China (1%) @ 51 hr |
3 | Hong Kong (3%) @ 3.1 days | Hong Kong (2%) @ 3.1 days | |
|
92A-INVEST | 1 | India (1%) | | |
|
93B-INVEST | 1 | India (69% ▲▲) @ 23 hr | India (7%) @ 23 hr | Sri Lanka (3% ▼) @ 10 hr |
2 | Sri Lanka (30% ▽) @ 10 hr | Sri Lanka (3% ▼) @ 10 hr | India (1% ▽) @ 23 hr |
|
97W-INVEST | 1 | China (42%) @ 56 hr | Taiwan (26%) @ 23 hr | Taiwan (12%) @ 23 hr |
2 | Taiwan (37%) @ 23 hr | China (13%) @ 56 hr | China (2%) @ 56 hr |
3 | Japan (11%) @ 3.0 days | Japan (3%) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (1%) |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.