Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Fri Jul 4 02:48:16 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04W-MUN | 1 | Japan (8% ▼) @ 3.8 days | Japan (3% ▽) @ 3.8 days | China (1%) |
2 | China (2%) | China (1%) | |
3 | North Korea (1%) @ 3.7 days | | |
|
05W-FIVE | 1 | China (57%) @ 66 hr | China (23%) @ 66 hr | Philippines (3%) @ 40 hr |
2 | Philippines (31%) @ 40 hr | Philippines (13%) @ 40 hr | China (3%) @ 66 hr |
3 | Vietnam (18%) @ 4.4 days | Taiwan (6%) @ 55 hr | Taiwan (1%) @ 55 hr |
|
06E-FLOSSIE | 1 | Mexico (21%) @ 47 hr | Mexico (6%) @ 47 hr | Mexico (1%) @ 47 hr |
2 | California (2%) @ 55 hr | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.