Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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Last updated: Fri Sep 22 23:49:10 UTC 2017

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
12L-INVEST	1	Nova Scotia (30% ▽) @ 20 hr	Nova Scotia (11%) @ 20 hr
	2	Newfoundland (26%) @ 39 hr	Newfoundland (4%) @ 39 hr
	3	Europe (21%) @ 5.7 days	Prince Edward Island (2%) @ 27 hr
14L-LEE	1	Europe (9%)	Azores (1%)
	2	Azores (4%)
	3	South Carolina (2%)
15L-MARIA	1	Bahamas Islands (31% ▼) @ 38 hr	Bahamas Islands (19% ▽) @ 38 hr	Bahamas Islands (15% ▽) @ 38 hr
	2	North Carolina (24% △) @ 5.2 days	North Carolina (15% ▲) @ 5.2 days	Florida (9%) @ 3.6 days
	3	Europe (19% ▲) @ 9.2 days	Florida (14% ▽) @ 3.6 days	North Carolina (3%) @ 5.2 days
90W-INVEST	1	Philippines (80% ▲) @ 13 hr	Philippines (40% △) @ 13 hr	Philippines (17%) @ 13 hr
	2	China (37% △) @ 3.5 days	China (13%) @ 3.5 days	Taiwan (1%) @ 60 hr
	3	Vietnam (24% △) @ 4.5 days	Vietnam (3%) @ 4.5 days	China (1%) @ 3.5 days
92W-INVEST	1	Philippines (46%) @ 6.1 days	Philippines (27%) @ 6.1 days	Philippines (22%) @ 6.1 days
	2	China (11%) @ 9.1 days	China (4%) @ 9.1 days	Guam or w/i 1deg (1%)
	3	Vietnam (10%)	Japan (2%) @ 15 days
98E-INVEST	1	Mexico (33% ▼) @ 54 hr	Mexico (15% ▽) @ 54 hr	Mexico (2%) @ 54 hr
	2	California (1%)

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	12L INVEST	14L LEE	15L MARIA	90W INVEST	92W INVEST	98E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right) Region (below)	39.4N 69.2W	30.5N 49.0W	22.8N 71.2W	16.0N 122.8E	5.9N 150.2E	17.1N 105.2W	TC LatLon (left) Region (below)
Alabama			5-1-0 ▼				Alabama
Antigua							Antigua
Any Land	51-16-0 ▼	10-1-0	61-41-18 ▼▼	84-47-18 △	70-32-23	38-16-3 ▼	Any Land
Arkansas			5-0-0				Arkansas
Australia							Australia
Azores		4-1-0					Azores
Bahamas Islands			31-19-15 ▼				Bahamas Islands
Barbados							Barbados
Barbuda							Barbuda
Belize							Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg			7-6-3				Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California						1-0-0	California
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg			4-0-0				Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China				37-13-1 △	11-4-0		China
Connecticut			7-1-0				Connecticut
Costa Rica							Costa Rica
Cuba			5-2-1 ▼				Cuba
Dominica							Dominica
Dominican Republic		1-0-0	1-0-0 ▼▼				Dominican Republic
Europe	21-0-0	9-0-0	19-0-0 ▲				Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W			7-2-0				FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB			8-7-3 ▽				FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg			16-14-10 ▼				FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North			4-2-0 ▽				FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida			18-14-9 ▽				Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W			4-3-1 ▽				FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N			11-10-8 ▽				FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N			11-5-1				FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia			10-4-1 ▽				Georgia
Greenland	4-0-0		4-0-0				Greenland
Grenada							Grenada
Guadeloupe							Guadeloupe
Guam or w/i 1deg					1-1-1		Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti			1-0-0 ▼				Haiti
Hawaii							Hawaii
Honduras							Honduras
Hong Kong				3-2-0	1-1-0		Hong Kong
Iceland	2-0-0 ▽	1-0-0	7-0-0 △				Iceland
India							India
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	12L INVEST	14L LEE	15L MARIA	90W INVEST	92W INVEST	98E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Jamaica							Jamaica
Japan				3-0-0 ▽	7-2-0		Japan
Long Island			6-1-0				Long Island
Louisiana			4-3-2				Louisiana
Maine	4-0-0 ▽		10-2-0				Maine
Martinique							Martinique
Maryland			13-0-0 △				Maryland
Massachusetts	5-1-0 ▽		10-3-0				Massachusetts
Mexico			3-3-0 ▼			33-15-2 ▼	Mexico
Mississippi			4-1-0 ▽				Mississippi
New Brunswick	10-2-0 ▼	1-0-0	10-2-0				New Brunswick
New England	7-2-0 ▼		13-3-0				New England
Newfoundland	26-4-0	2-0-0	13-1-0 ▲				Newfoundland
New Jersey			9-0-0 △				New Jersey
New York State			14-1-0				New York State
Nicaragua							Nicaragua
North Carolina	1-0-0	2-0-0	24-15-3 △				North Carolina
North Korea				1-0-0	1-0-0		North Korea
Nova Scotia	30-11-0 ▽	1-0-0	13-6-0 ▲				Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania			8-0-0				Pennsylvania
Philippines				80-40-17 ▲	46-27-22		Philippines
Prince Edward Island	9-2-0 ▼	1-0-0	8-1-0 ▲				Prince Edward Island
PSU or w/i 1deg			6-0-0				PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico							Puerto Rico
Rhode Island			3-0-0 △				Rhode Island
S New England	5-1-0 ▽		10-3-0				S New England
South Carolina	1-1-0	2-0-0	11-3-1				South Carolina
South Korea				1-0-0	4-1-0		South Korea
Sri Lanka							Sri Lanka
St. Lucia							St. Lucia
St. Vincent & Grenadines							St. Vincent & Grenadines
Taiwan				4-2-1	1-1-0		Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg			4-1-0				Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee			6-0-0 ▽				Tennessee
Texas			2-2-2 ▽				Texas
Turks & Caicos Islands			11-4-1 ▼▼				Turks & Caicos Islands
USA	9-3-0 ▼	2-0-0	37-29-12 ▽			9-2-0	USA
Vietnam				24-3-0 △	10-1-0		Vietnam
Virginia			17-2-0 △				Virginia
Region (above) TC LatLon (right)	39.0N 69.0W	30.0N 49.0W	22.0N 71.0W	16.0N 122.0E	5.0N 150.0E	17.0N 105.0W	Region (above) TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	12L INVEST	14L LEE	15L MARIA	90W INVEST	92W INVEST	98E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)