Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Fri Jul 11 00:48:47 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
05W-INVEST | 1 | Hong Kong (27% ▲▲) @ 11 hr | Hong Kong (11% ▲) @ 11 hr | Hong Kong (1%) @ 11 hr |
2 | Vietnam (7% △) @ 5.7 days | Vietnam (1%) @ 5.7 days | |
3 | Taiwan (4%) @ 29 hr | Taiwan (1%) @ 29 hr | |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (35%) @ 52 hr | Japan (20%) @ 52 hr | Japan (3%) @ 52 hr |
2 | China (7%) @ 4.5 days | China (3%) @ 4.5 days | |
3 | South Korea (6%) @ 3.8 days | South Korea (2%) @ 3.8 days | |
|
92W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (33% △) @ 57 hr | Japan (13%) @ 57 hr | China (3%) @ 3.0 days |
2 | China (16% ▽) @ 3.0 days | China (7%) @ 3.0 days | Taiwan (1% ▽) @ 65 hr |
3 | South Korea (14%) @ 70 hr | South Korea (4%) @ 70 hr | Japan (1%) @ 57 hr |
|
93W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (22%) @ 4.2 days | Japan (14% ▽) @ 4.2 days | Taiwan (2% ▽) @ 4.5 days |
2 | China (7% ▽) @ 5.6 days | Taiwan (3% ▽) @ 4.5 days | Japan (1%) @ 4.2 days |
3 | South Korea (5%) @ 5.5 days | South Korea (2%) @ 5.5 days | China (1%) @ 5.6 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.