Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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Last updated: Mon Sep 23 03:49:28 UTC 2019

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
10L-JERRY	1	Europe (21%) @ 8.9 days	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (13% △) @ 39 hr	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (5%) @ 39 hr
	2	Newfoundland (19%) @ 5.3 days	North Carolina (5% ▽) @ 8.7 days	North Carolina (2%) @ 8.7 days
	3	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (19% ▲) @ 39 hr	Nova Scotia (4% ▽) @ 4.8 days	Louisiana (1%)
12L-KAREN	1	Mexico (30% △) @ 5.0 days	Cuba (16% ▽) @ 5.0 days	Cuba (8%) @ 5.0 days
	2	Cuba (22%) @ 5.0 days	Mexico (15% ▽) @ 5.0 days	Mexico (5%) @ 5.0 days
	3	Belize (18% △) @ 4.4 days	Belize (9%) @ 4.4 days	Texas (4%) @ 8.9 days
13E-KIKO	1	Hawaii (3%) @ 5.5 days
13L-13L	1	Iceland (7%) @ 20 days	Nova Scotia (3%)	New York State (1%)
	2	Europe (7%) @ 12 days	Virginia (1%)	Connecticut (1%)
	3	Turks & Caicos Islands (4%) @ 7.6 days	New York State (1%)
14E-MARIO	1	Mexico (28%) @ 28 hr	Mexico (8%) @ 28 hr	Mexico (1%) @ 28 hr
	2	California (4%) @ 63 hr
18W-TAPAH	1	Japan (71% △)	Japan (14% ▼▼)	Japan (1% ▽)

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	10L JERRY	12L KAREN	13E KIKO	13L 13L	14E MARIO	18W TAPAH	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right) Region (below)	27.1N 67.1W	12.9N 63.2W	15.6N 134.1W	10.8N 20.2W	23.1N 112.7W	37.6N 134.9E	TC LatLon (left) Region (below)
Alabama	1-0-0 ▽	9-3-1					Alabama
Antigua							Antigua
Any Land	37-15-3 ▽	83-56-32 ▼▼	3-0-0	34-5-1	29-8-1	72-14-1 ▼▼	Any Land
Arkansas		3-0-0					Arkansas
Australia							Australia
Azores							Azores
Bahamas Islands	2-1-1 ▽	13-7-1 △		4-0-0			Bahamas Islands
Barbados							Barbados
Barbuda							Barbuda
Belize		18-9-2 △					Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg	19-13-5 ▲	5-5-2					Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California					4-0-0		California
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg		3-0-0		1-0-0			Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China							China
Connecticut				1-1-1			Connecticut
Costa Rica		1-0-0					Costa Rica
Cuba		22-16-8					Cuba
Dominica							Dominica
Dominican Republic	2-0-0	6-5-3		2-0-0			Dominican Republic
Europe	21-0-0	3-0-0 ▽		7-0-0			Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W	1-1-0	2-0-0					FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB	1-0-0	2-0-0 △					FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg	1-1-1 ▽	11-6-3 △		4-0-0			FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North	1-1-0	2-2-0					FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida	2-2-1 ▽	10-5-3 △					Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W		5-3-2					FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N	1-1-1 ▽	8-2-2 △		4-0-0			FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N	1-0-0	2-1-1					FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia	3-0-0	6-0-0					Georgia
Greenland	4-0-0 △	1-0-0					Greenland
Grenada		6-1-0 ▼▼					Grenada
Guadeloupe							Guadeloupe
Guam or w/i 1deg							Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti	2-0-0	9-8-4					Haiti
Hawaii			3-0-0				Hawaii
Honduras		13-7-0					Honduras
Hong Kong							Hong Kong
Iceland	3-0-0	2-0-0 ▽		7-0-0			Iceland
India							India
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	10L JERRY	12L KAREN	13E KIKO	13L 13L	14E MARIO	18W TAPAH	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Jamaica		5-5-1					Jamaica
Japan						71-14-1 △	Japan
Long Island	1-1-0 ▽			1-1-1			Long Island
Louisiana	1-1-1 ▽	8-6-3					Louisiana
Madagascar							Madagascar
Maine	1-0-0 ▼			1-0-0			Maine
Martinique		1-0-0					Martinique
Maryland	1-0-0 ▽	4-1-0		1-0-0			Maryland
Massachusetts	2-1-0 ▽	1-0-0		1-1-0			Massachusetts
Mexico		30-15-5 △			28-8-1		Mexico
Mississippi	1-0-0	6-0-0					Mississippi
New Brunswick	4-1-0 ▽						New Brunswick
New England	2-1-0 ▼	1-0-0		1-1-1			New England
Newfoundland	19-3-0	2-0-0		3-0-0			Newfoundland
New Jersey	2-1-0						New Jersey
New York State	2-1-0 ▽	3-1-0		2-1-1			New York State
Nicaragua		10-6-0					Nicaragua
North Carolina	9-5-2	11-4-1 △		1-1-0			North Carolina
North Korea							North Korea
Nova Scotia	9-4-0 ▽			4-3-0			Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania	1-0-0 ▽	4-1-0		1-0-0			Pennsylvania
Philippines							Philippines
Prince Edward Island	2-0-0 ▽			3-0-0			Prince Edward Island
PSU or w/i 1deg		3-0-0		1-0-0			PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico		1-0-0					Puerto Rico
Rhode Island							Rhode Island
S New England	2-1-0 ▽	1-0-0		1-1-1			S New England
South Carolina	4-1-0	4-4-1		1-0-0			South Carolina
South Korea							South Korea
Sri Lanka							Sri Lanka
St. Lucia		1-0-0 ▽		2-0-0			St. Lucia
St. Vincent & Grenadines		2-0-0 ▼▼					St. Vincent & Grenadines
Taiwan							Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg	1-0-0	2-0-0					Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee	1-0-0 ▽	7-0-0					Tennessee
Texas		9-7-4					Texas
Turks & Caicos Islands		2-0-0		4-0-0			Turks & Caicos Islands
USA	7-4-1 ▼	28-20-12 △		2-2-1	8-2-0		USA
Vietnam							Vietnam
Virginia	1-0-0 ▽	7-1-0		1-1-0			Virginia
Region (above) TC LatLon (right)	27.0N 67.0W	12.0N 63.0W	15.0N 134.0W	10.0N 20.0W	23.0N 112.0W	37.0N 134.0E	Region (above) TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	10L JERRY	12L KAREN	13E KIKO	13L 13L	14E MARIO	18W TAPAH	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)