Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sun Jul 6 11:48:58 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
03L-CHANTAL | 1 | North Carolina (84% ▲▲) @ 15 hr | North Carolina (21% ▽) @ 15 hr | North Carolina (4%) @ 15 hr |
2 | South Carolina (44% ▲▲) @ 11 hr | South Carolina (12%) @ 11 hr | South Carolina (2%) @ 11 hr |
3 | Virginia (30% ▲) @ 31 hr | Virginia (3%) @ 31 hr | |
|
04W-MUN | 1 | Japan (2%) @ 51 hr | | |
|
05W-DANAS | 1 | China (56% ▼) @ 55 hr | China (21% ▽) @ 55 hr | Taiwan (3%) @ 30 hr |
2 | Taiwan (23% ▲▲) @ 30 hr | Taiwan (12% ▲) @ 30 hr | China (2% ▽) @ 55 hr |
3 | Hong Kong (11% ▽) @ 34 hr | Hong Kong (6%) @ 34 hr | Philippines (1%) @ 4.2 days |
|
96E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (12% ▽) @ 3.8 days | Mexico (4% ▽) @ 3.8 days | Mexico (1%) @ 3.8 days |
2 | California (1%) @ 5.5 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.