Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Mon Sep 25 17:48:21 UTC 2017

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 14L-LEE 
1
 Europe (13%) @ 4.6 days 
  
  
2
 South Carolina (3%) @ 18 days 
  
  
3
 North Carolina (3%) @ 17 days 
  
  
 15L-MARIA 
1
 Europe (22% △) @ 8.0 days 
 Nova Scotia (6%) @ 3.5 days 
 North Carolina (1%) @ 40 hr 
2
 Newfoundland (15%) @ 3.5 days 
 North Carolina (6%) @ 40 hr 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (1%) @ 51 hr 
3
 North Carolina (13% ▽) @ 40 hr 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (3% ▽) @ 51 hr 
  
 18E-PILAR 
1
 Mexico (84%) @ 8 hr 
 Mexico (36% ▲) @ 8 hr 
 Mexico (6%) @ 8 hr 
2
 Texas (2% △) 
  
  
 22W-TWENTYTWO 
1
 China (16% ▼▼) 
 China (2% ▼▼) 
  

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
18E
PILAR
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
30.9N
49.7W
30.8N
73.0W
22.6N
106.9W
21.7N
106.3E
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
10-0-0
42-15-1
84-36-6
ONLAND
Any Land
Arkansas Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
3-0-0
1-0-0
Azores
Bahamas
Islands
1-1-0
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
8-3-1
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
1-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
16-2-0 ▼▼
China
Connecticut
2-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
2-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
13-0-0
22-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
1-0-0
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
2-0-0
Georgia
Greenland
3-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Iceland
3-0-0
2-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
18E
PILAR
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan Japan
Long Island
2-1-0
Long Island
Louisiana Louisiana
Maine
5-0-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
3-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
4-2-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
84-36-6
Mexico
Mississippi Mississippi
New Brunswick
6-1-0
New Brunswick
New England
6-2-0
New England
Newfoundland
2-0-0
15-2-0
Newfoundland
New Jersey
3-2-0
New Jersey
New York State
3-1-0
New York State
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
3-0-0
13-6-1
North Carolina
North Korea North Korea
Nova Scotia
12-6-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
3-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
4-2-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
1-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
4-2-0
S New England
South Carolina
3-0-0
3-1-0
South Carolina
South Korea South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee Tennessee
Texas
2-0-0
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
3-0-0
17-6-0
30-1-0 ▲▲
USA
Vietnam
ONLAND
Vietnam
Virginia
4-1-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
30.0N
49.0W
30.0N
73.0W
22.0N
106.0W
21.0N
106.0E
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
18E
PILAR
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)