Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Thu Oct 16 11:48:22 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
91E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (30% ▼) @ 3.9 days | Mexico (16%) @ 3.9 days | Mexico (4%) @ 3.9 days |
2 | Texas (2%) @ 5.0 days | | |
3 | California (2%) | | |
|
94S-INVEST | 1 | Madagascar (3%) | Madagascar (1%) | Madagascar (1%) |
|
96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (39% ▽) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (27% ▽) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (14% ▽) @ 3.0 days |
2 | China (29% ▲) @ 5.3 days | China (16% △) @ 5.3 days | China (4%) @ 5.3 days |
3 | Vietnam (14% △) @ 6.6 days | Taiwan (5% △) @ 4.5 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 4.5 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.