Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Jul 27 13:47:44 UTC 2024
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
95W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (78% ▲) @ 52 hr | Philippines (22% △) @ 52 hr | Philippines (8%) @ 52 hr |
2 | Vietnam (20%) @ 6.5 days | China (7% △) @ 6.1 days | Vietnam (1%) @ 6.5 days |
3 | China (13% ▲) @ 6.1 days | Vietnam (3%) @ 6.5 days | |
|
96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (61%) @ 57 hr | Philippines (37%) @ 57 hr | Philippines (19%) @ 57 hr |
2 | China (30%) @ 5.1 days | China (14%) @ 5.1 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 3.9 days |
3 | Vietnam (17%) @ 6.3 days | Vietnam (3%) @ 6.3 days | China (1%) @ 5.1 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.