Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Jul 29 07:50:02 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
11W-CO-MAY | 1 | China (30% ▲▲) @ 60 hr | China (12% ▲) @ 60 hr | China (4% △) @ 60 hr |
2 | Japan (25% ▼▼) @ 51 hr | Japan (8% ▼) @ 51 hr | South Korea (1%) @ 44 hr |
3 | South Korea (22% ▲) @ 44 hr | South Korea (7% △) @ 44 hr | Japan (1%) @ 51 hr |
|
12W-KROSA | 1 | Japan (12% ▽) @ 61 hr | Japan (4%) @ 61 hr | China (1%) @ 4.8 days |
2 | China (4% ▽) @ 4.8 days | China (2%) @ 4.8 days | |
3 | Taiwan (1%) | | |
|
99E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (16% △) @ 5.1 days | Mexico (12% ▲) @ 5.1 days | |
|
CP02-KELI | 1 | Hawaii (5%) @ 3.7 days | Hawaii (5%) @ 3.7 days | Hawaii (5%) @ 3.7 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.