Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Mon Jul 14 18:49:24 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
06W-NARI | 1 | Japan (26% ▲▲) @ 5 hr | | |
|
07W-INVEST | 1 | South Korea (1%) | | |
2 | North Korea (1%) | | |
|
93L-INVEST | 1 | North Carolina (48%) @ 49 hr | North Carolina (21%) @ 49 hr | North Carolina (6%) @ 49 hr |
2 | Europe (19%) @ 10 days | South Carolina (9%) @ 46 hr | South Carolina (2%) @ 46 hr |
3 | South Carolina (16%) @ 46 hr | Massachusetts (4%) @ 3.0 days | New York State (1%) @ 68 hr |
|
95W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (19%) @ 3.3 days | Japan (8%) @ 3.3 days | China (1%) @ 4.8 days |
2 | China (7%) @ 4.8 days | China (2%) @ 4.8 days | |
3 | South Korea (2%) @ 4.4 days | South Korea (1%) @ 4.4 days | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.