Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Sat Nov 25 02:47:18 UTC 2017

Summary:

This page uses the past several decades to century of historical tracks to estimate the likelihood of a tropical cyclone in a given location eventually crossing various land areas.

Method:

The 6-hourly historical best-track dataset for the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Western North Pacific were linearly interpolated to 10-minute increments. A 0.0833 degree (~6-10km) land-sea mask for the world (from http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/Welcome.html) was used to determine when each 10-minute interpolated position was over water or land. Tracking continued over land, such that the probability shown is for crossing an area, not only landfalling. For example, a tropical storm crossing New England after making landfall on the Gulf Coast still counts as "crossing" New England for these probabilities.

Additional notes: