Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.

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[ MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]

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Last updated: Thu Sep 29 02:44:29 UTC 2016

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-CHABA	1	Philippines (20% △) @ 4.9 days	Philippines (15% △) @ 4.9 days	Philippines (8%) @ 4.9 days
WPAC-CHABA	2	Guam or w/i 1deg (17%) @ 6 hr	Japan (8% △) @ 7.1 days	Taiwan (2%) @ 5.9 days
WPAC-CHABA	3	China (16% △) @ 7.0 days	China (7% △) @ 7.0 days	Guam or w/i 1deg (2%) @ 6 hr
EP97-INVEST	1	Mexico (22%) @ 3.5 days	Mexico (11%) @ 3.5 days	Mexico (1%) @ 3.5 days
EP97-INVEST	2	California (2%) @ 6.1 days
EP19-ULIKA	1	Hawaii (3% △)
EP18-ROSLYN	1	Mexico (12% △) @ 35 hr	Mexico (2%) @ 35 hr
EP18-ROSLYN	2	California (2%) @ 47 hr
AL97-MATTHEW	1	Mexico (27%) @ 5.5 days	Mexico (14%) @ 5.5 days	Texas (5%) @ 8.7 days
AL97-MATTHEW	2	Dominican Republic (17%) @ 57 hr	Dominican Republic (12%) @ 57 hr	Mexico (5%) @ 5.5 days
AL97-MATTHEW	3	Cuba (16%) @ 4.3 days	Texas (9%) @ 8.7 days	Cuba (5%) @ 4.3 days
AL14-MATTHEW	1	Mexico (28%) @ 5.4 days	Mexico (14%) @ 5.4 days	Texas (5%) @ 8.3 days
AL14-MATTHEW	2	Dominican Republic (17%) @ 53 hr	Dominican Republic (12%) @ 53 hr	Mexico (5%) @ 5.4 days
AL14-MATTHEW	3	Cuba (17%) @ 4.2 days	Texas (9%) @ 8.3 days	Cuba (4%) @ 4.2 days

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL97 MATTHEW	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/ Region (below)	14.4N 144.0E	15.0N 104.5W	15.5N 138.8W	21.8N 115.0W	13.7N 61.3W	13.9N 62.4W	TC LatLon (left)/ Region (below)
Alabama					5-2-0	5-2-0	Alabama
Arkansas					4-0-0	3-0-0	Arkansas
Australia							Australia
Azores							Azores
Belize					11-3-2	12-3-2	Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg					4-3-1	5-4-1	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California		2-0-0		2-0-0			California
Canadian Maritimes					9-2-0	8-1-0	Canadian Maritimes
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg					2-0-0	2-0-0	Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China	16-7-2 △						China
Connecticut					1-0-0		Connecticut
Costa Rica							Costa Rica
Cuba					16-9-5	17-9-4	Cuba
Dominican Republic					17-12-3	17-12-2	Dominican Republic
Europe					5-0-0	3-0-0	Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W					3-0-0	4-0-0	FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB					4-3-0	3-2-0	FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg					11-8-2	11-7-2	FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North					3-2-0	3-2-0	FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida					13-7-2	12-6-1	Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W					3-2-0	4-2-0	FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N					8-4-2	8-3-1	FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N					2-1-0	2-1-0	FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia					7-1-0	7-1-0	Georgia
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL97 MATTHEW	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Greenland							Greenland
Guam or w/i 1deg	17-4-2						Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti					11-8-2	11-8-1	Haiti
Hawaii			3-0-0 △				Hawaii
Honduras					4-2-0	5-2-0	Honduras
Hong Kong	2-1-0						Hong Kong
Iceland					3-0-0	3-0-0	Iceland
India							India
Jamaica					8-8-4	7-7-3	Jamaica
Japan	14-8-0 △						Japan
Long Island					1-0-0		Long Island
Louisiana					5-4-3	6-4-2	Louisiana
Maine					4-0-0	3-0-0	Maine
Maryland					3-1-0	3-1-0	Maryland
Massachusetts					4-2-0	4-2-0	Massachusetts
Mexico		22-11-1		12-2-0 △	27-14-5	28-14-5	Mexico
Mississippi					3-0-0	4-0-0	Mississippi
New England					6-2-0	4-2-0	New England
New Jersey					1-0-0		New Jersey
Nicaragua							Nicaragua
North Carolina					11-6-1	11-5-1	North Carolina
Pennsylvania					3-1-0	3-1-0	Pennsylvania
Philippines	20-15-8 △						Philippines
PSU or w/i 1deg					2-0-0	2-0-0	PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico					9-5-1	7-3-1	Puerto Rico
Rhode Island					1-0-0	1-0-0	Rhode Island
S New England					4-2-0	4-2-0	S New England
South Carolina					5-1-0	5-1-0	South Carolina
South Korea	6-2-1						South Korea
Sri Lanka							Sri Lanka
Taiwan	7-5-2 △						Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg					2-0-0	3-0-0	Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee					5-0-0	5-0-0	Tennessee
Texas					13-9-5	12-9-5	Texas
USA		3-0-0		4-1-0	34-23-9	34-22-9	USA
Vietnam	5-1-0						Vietnam
Virginia					4-1-0	4-1-0	Virginia
Region (above)/ TC LatLon (right)	14.4N 144.0E	15.0N 104.0W	15.0N 138.0W	21.0N 115.0W	13.0N 61.0W	13.0N 62.0W	Region (above)/ TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL97 MATTHEW	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)