Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.

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[ MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]

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Last updated: Sat Aug 19 15:41:58 UTC 2017

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
EP13-KENNETH	1	Hawaii (2%) @ 5.8 days
CP91-INVEST	1	Mexico (3%) @ 4.6 days	Hawaii (2%)	Hawaii (2%)
CP91-INVEST	2	Hawaii (2%)
AL92-INVEST	1	Europe (31% ▲) @ 10 days	North Carolina (13% △) @ 6.9 days	North Carolina (5% △) @ 6.9 days
AL92-INVEST	2	Canadian Maritimes (28% ▲) @ 7.8 days	Canadian Maritimes (8%) @ 7.8 days	Florida (4% △)
AL92-INVEST	3	North Carolina (19% ▲) @ 6.9 days	Massachusetts (7% △) @ 7.1 days	South Carolina (1%) @ 7.6 days
AL09-HARVEY	1	Mexico (41% ▲) @ 4.1 days	Mexico (20% ▲) @ 4.1 days	Cuba (10% ▲) @ 4.4 days
AL09-HARVEY	2	Cuba (24% △) @ 4.4 days	Cuba (19% ▲) @ 4.4 days	Mexico (6%) @ 4.1 days
AL09-HARVEY	3	Belize (21% ▲) @ 3.7 days	Texas (9%) @ 8.5 days	Texas (3% ▽) @ 8.5 days

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	EP13 KENNETH	CP91 INVEST	AL92 INVEST	AL09 HARVEY	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/ Region (below)	15.8N 121.8W	14.3N 150.0W	20.0N 57.8W	13.9N 68.1W	TC LatLon (left)/ Region (below)
Alabama			2-1-0 ▽	10-4-2 △	Alabama
Arkansas				3-0-0	Arkansas
Australia					Australia
Azores					Azores
Belize				21-9-2 ▲	Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg			5-5-1 ▽	2-2-0 ▽	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California					California
Canadian Maritimes			28-8-0 ▲	2-0-0 ▽	Canadian Maritimes
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg			2-0-0 ▽	3-0-0	Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China					China
Connecticut			8-4-0 △		Connecticut
Costa Rica					Costa Rica
Cuba				24-19-10 △	Cuba
Dominican Republic			1-0-0	3-2-0 ▼▼	Dominican Republic
Europe			31-0-0 ▲	5-0-0 △	Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W			3-1-0	3-0-0	FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB			2-2-1	2-0-0	FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg			6-4-3 △	10-5-3 ▽	FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North			2-1-0 △	2-2-0	FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida			5-5-4	12-5-2	Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W			1-1-1	6-4-0	FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N			5-3-3 △	7-2-2	FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N			3-1-0	2-2-2	FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia			5-0-0	9-0-0	Georgia
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	EP13 KENNETH	CP91 INVEST	AL92 INVEST	AL09 HARVEY	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Greenland			4-0-0 △	3-0-0 △	Greenland
Guam or w/i 1deg					Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti			1-0-0	8-6-2 ▽	Haiti
Hawaii	2-0-0	2-2-2			Hawaii
Honduras				14-9-0 ▲	Honduras
Hong Kong					Hong Kong
Iceland			7-0-0	4-0-0 △	Iceland
India					India
Jamaica				7-6-2	Jamaica
Japan					Japan
Long Island			9-5-0 △		Long Island
Louisiana			2-1-1	13-8-2 ▲	Louisiana
Maine			8-0-0 △		Maine
Maryland			9-0-0 △	5-2-0 △	Maryland
Massachusetts			13-7-0 △		Massachusetts
Mexico		3-0-0	1-1-0	41-20-6 ▲	Mexico
Mississippi			2-0-0	8-0-0 △	Mississippi
New England			15-7-0 △		New England
New Jersey			9-2-0 △		New Jersey
Nicaragua					Nicaragua
North Carolina			19-13-5 ▲	11-2-2	North Carolina
Pennsylvania			7-0-0	5-2-0	Pennsylvania
Philippines					Philippines
PSU or w/i 1deg			3-0-0 ▽	3-0-0	PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico				1-0-0	Puerto Rico
Rhode Island			5-1-0 △		Rhode Island
S New England			13-7-0 △		S New England
South Carolina			7-3-1 △	3-0-0	South Carolina
South Korea					South Korea
Sri Lanka					Sri Lanka
Taiwan					Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg			2-0-0	3-0-0	Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee			2-0-0	8-0-0 △	Tennessee
Texas			1-1-0	15-9-3 △	Texas
USA			24-22-6 ▲	34-24-10 △	USA
Vietnam					Vietnam
Virginia			11-2-0 △	7-2-0 △	Virginia
Region (above)/ TC LatLon (right)	15.0N 121.0W	14.0N 150.0W	20.0N 57.0W	13.0N 68.0W	Region (above)/ TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	EP13 KENNETH	CP91 INVEST	AL92 INVEST	AL09 HARVEY	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)