Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Oct 14 13:48:20 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
12L-LORENZO | 1 | Europe (23% △) @ 11 days | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (8% △) @ 6.1 days | Bahamas Islands (5% △) @ 5.1 days |
2 | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (10% △) @ 6.1 days | North Carolina (5% ▽) @ 8.4 days | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (3%) @ 6.1 days |
3 | Bahamas Islands (6% △) @ 5.1 days | Bahamas Islands (5% △) @ 5.1 days | Cuba (2%) |
|
96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (27% ▼▼) @ 5.2 days | Philippines (20% ▼▼) @ 5.2 days | Philippines (13% ▼) @ 5.2 days |
2 | China (17% ▽) @ 7.7 days | China (10%) @ 7.7 days | Taiwan (2% △) @ 6.0 days |
3 | Japan (12% ▲) @ 7.7 days | Japan (6% ▲) @ 7.7 days | China (2% △) @ 7.7 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.