Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]


Last updated: Sun Jul 6 20:48:51 UTC 2025

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 03L-CHANTAL 
1
 North Carolina (94% ▲▲) @ 3 hr 
 North Carolina (13% ▼) @ 3 hr 
 South Carolina (1%) @ 8 hr 
2
 Virginia (61% ▲▲) @ 13 hr 
 Virginia (4%) @ 13 hr 
 North Carolina (1% ▽) @ 3 hr 
3
 Maryland (37% ▲▲) @ 17 hr 
 South Carolina (4% ▼) @ 8 hr 
  
 04W-MUN 
1
 Japan (1%) 
  
  
 05W-DANAS 
1
 China (51% ▼) @ 38 hr 
 China (13% ▼) @ 38 hr 
 China (2%) @ 38 hr 
2
 Japan (7% △) @ 61 hr 
 Philippines (2% ▽) @ 5.6 days 
 Japan (1%) @ 61 hr 
3
 South Korea (5% △) @ 3.0 days 
 Japan (2%) @ 61 hr 
  
 96E-INVEST 
1
 Mexico (11%) @ 3.3 days 
 Mexico (4%) @ 3.3 days 
 Mexico (1%) @ 3.3 days 
2
 California (2%) @ 4.8 days 
  
  

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
34.5N
79.3W
34.1N
149.3E
23.8N
120.5E
15.7N
109.8W
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
ONLAND
3-0-0
ONLAND
17-6-1
Any Land
Arkansas Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California
2-0-0
California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
7-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
51-13-2
China
Connecticut
15-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
Dominican
Republic
Europe
14-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Florida Florida
Georgia
1-0-0
Georgia
Greenland
1-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
2-0-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
6-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan
1-0-0
7-2-1
Japan
Long Island
15-2-0
Long Island
Louisiana Louisiana
Madagascar Madagascar
Maine
19-0-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
37-2-0 ▲▲
Maryland
Massachusetts
28-1-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
11-4-1
Mexico
Mississippi Mississippi
New Brunswick
19-0-0
New Brunswick
New England
33-2-0
New England
New Jersey
19-1-0
New Jersey
New York State
30-3-0
New York State
Newfoundland
11-0-0
Newfoundland
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
94-13-1 ▲▲
North Carolina
North Korea
3-0-0
North Korea
Nova Scotia
9-0-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
19-1-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
3-2-0
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
7-0-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
8-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
9-1-0
Rhode Island
S New England
28-2-0
S New England
South Carolina
33-4-1 ▼▼
South Carolina
South Korea
5-0-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
ONLAND
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
1-0-0
Tennessee
Texas Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
ONLAND
4-0-0
USA
Vietnam
3-0-0
Vietnam
Virginia
61-4-0 ▲▲
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
34.0N
79.0W
34.0N
149.0E
23.0N
120.0E
15.0N
109.0W
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)