Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]


Last updated: Sat Oct 19 11:48:38 UTC 2019

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 16L-NESTOR 
1
 Florida (75% ▲▲) @ 13 hr 
 Florida (25% ▲▲) @ 13 hr 
 FL Panhandle west of 85W (5%) @ 13 hr 
2
 FL Panhandle west of 85W (51% ▲▲) @ 13 hr 
 FL Panhandle west of 85W (22% ▲▲) @ 13 hr 
 Florida (5%) @ 13 hr 
3
 Alabama (46% ▲▲) @ 25 hr 
 Alabama (12% ▲) @ 25 hr 
 Mississippi (2%) @ 34 hr 
 21W-NEOGURI 
1
 China (32% △) @ 71 hr 
 Taiwan (14%) @ 45 hr 
 Taiwan (6%) @ 45 hr 
2
 Taiwan (21% △) @ 45 hr 
 China (12%) @ 71 hr 
 Japan (2%) @ 3.4 days 
3
 Japan (20% △) @ 3.4 days 
 Japan (10%) @ 3.4 days 
 China (2%) @ 71 hr 
 22W-TWENTYTWO 
1
 Philippines (16%) @ 7.1 days 
 Philippines (12%) @ 7.1 days 
 Philippines (8%) @ 7.1 days 
2
 Japan (12%) @ 9.0 days 
 Guam or w/i 1deg (5%) @ 3.1 days 
 Guam or w/i 1deg (2%) @ 3.1 days 
3
 Guam or w/i 1deg (9%) @ 3.1 days 
 China (5%) @ 9.3 days 
 Japan (1%) @ 9.0 days 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
16L
NESTOR
18E
OCTAVE
21W
NEOGURI
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
28.7N
86.5W
11.4N
126.5W
21.6N
127.3E
10.8N
155.2E
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
46-12-1 ▲▲
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
94-35-8
67-44-19
53-37-17
Any Land
Arkansas
8-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
1-0-0
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
32-12-2
9-5-1
China
Connecticut
5-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
Dominican
Republic
Europe
7-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
36-7-0 ▲▲
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
1-0-0
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
7-0-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
75-25-5 ▲▲
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
51-22-5 ▲▲
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
5-1-0
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
45-4-0 ▲▲
Georgia
Greenland Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
9-5-2
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
3-1-0
3-3-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
2-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
16L
NESTOR
18E
OCTAVE
21W
NEOGURI
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan
20-10-2
12-4-1
Japan
Long Island
5-1-0
Long Island
Louisiana
15-4-2 ▼▼
Louisiana
Madagascar Madagascar
Maine
7-0-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
7-1-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
8-0-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
1-0-0 ▼▼
Mexico
Mississippi
23-6-2
Mississippi
New Brunswick
6-0-0
New Brunswick
New England
12-1-0
New England
Newfoundland
6-0-0
Newfoundland
New Jersey
4-0-0
New Jersey
New York State
10-1-0
New York State
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
34-1-0 ▲▲
North Carolina
North Korea
2-0-0
North Korea
Nova Scotia
3-0-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
4-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
5-3-1
16-12-8
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
1-0-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
9-1-0
S New England
South Carolina
30-0-0 ▲▲
South Carolina
South Korea
7-2-1
2-1-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
21-14-6
6-3-0
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
24-6-0 ▲▲
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
20-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
5-2-0 ▼▼
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
94-35-8
USA
Vietnam
4-0-0
3-0-0
Vietnam
Virginia
12-0-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
28.0N
86.0W
11.0N
126.0W
21.0N
127.0E
10.0N
155.0E
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
16L
NESTOR
18E
OCTAVE
21W
NEOGURI
22W
TWENTYTWO
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)