Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Thu Oct 23 00:49:59 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04S-CHENGE | 1 | Madagascar (29%) @ 4.3 days | Madagascar (6%) @ 4.3 days | Madagascar (2%) @ 4.3 days |
|
13L-MELISSA | 1 | Mexico (41%) @ 3.4 days | Nicaragua (22% △) @ 51 hr | Cuba (10%) @ 3.9 days |
2 | Belize (29%) @ 68 hr | Mexico (19%) @ 3.4 days | Bahamas Islands (7%) @ 5.7 days |
3 | Nicaragua (28% △) @ 51 hr | Honduras (17% △) @ 47 hr | Mexico (6%) @ 3.4 days |
|
30W-FENGSHEN | 1 | Vietnam (78% ▲▲) @ 17 hr | Vietnam (22% ▲) @ 17 hr | Vietnam (1%) @ 17 hr |
2 | China (10% ▼▼) @ 38 hr | China (2% ▼) @ 38 hr | |
3 | Japan (1%) | | |
|
92A-INVEST | 1 | India (3% △) | | |
|
95S-INVEST | 1 | Madagascar (1%) | | |
|
97W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (62% ▲▲) @ 12 hr | Philippines (32% ▲▲) @ 12 hr | Philippines (13% ▲▲) @ 12 hr |
2 | China (55% ▲▲) @ 67 hr | China (23% ▲) @ 67 hr | Taiwan (3% ▼) @ 44 hr |
3 | Vietnam (15% ▲▲) @ 4.4 days | Taiwan (10% ▼▼) @ 44 hr | China (3%) @ 67 hr |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.