Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sun Jul 27 11:49:49 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
10W-INVEST | 1 | China (66% ▼) @ 18 hr | Taiwan (22% ▲) @ 4 hr | Taiwan (7% △) @ 4 hr |
2 | Taiwan (41% ▲▲) @ 4 hr | China (18%) @ 18 hr | China (4%) @ 18 hr |
3 | South Korea (6%) @ 54 hr | Philippines (1%) @ 10 days | |
|
11W-CO-MAY | 1 | Japan (40% ▲) @ 60 hr | Japan (20% ▲) @ 60 hr | Japan (2%) @ 60 hr |
2 | South Korea (8% ▼) @ 3.2 days | China (3% ▽) @ 3.0 days | China (1%) @ 3.0 days |
3 | China (7% ▼) @ 3.0 days | South Korea (2% ▽) @ 3.2 days | |
|
12W-KROSA | 1 | Japan (14% ▽) @ 4.8 days | Japan (8% ▽) @ 4.8 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 5.7 days |
2 | China (8% ▽) @ 7.1 days | Taiwan (4%) @ 5.7 days | Japan (1%) @ 4.8 days |
3 | Taiwan (4%) @ 5.7 days | South Korea (3% △) @ 6.0 days | China (1%) @ 7.1 days |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (38% ▽) @ 42 hr | Japan (17% ▽) @ 42 hr | Japan (3%) @ 42 hr |
2 | South Korea (24% ▲▲) @ 41 hr | South Korea (8% ▲) @ 41 hr | |
3 | China (11% ▲) @ 48 hr | China (2%) @ 48 hr | |
|
CP01-ONE | 1 | Hawaii (5%) | Hawaii (5%) | Hawaii (5%) |
|
CP90-INVEST | 1 | Hawaii (4%) | Hawaii (4%) | Hawaii (4%) |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.