Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]
Last updated: Fri Sep 19 23:49:55 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm Rank Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
07L-GABRIELLE 1 Europe (24% △) @ 10 days North Carolina (8%) @ 6.6 days Bahamas Islands (3%) @ 3.7 days
2 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (11% △) @ 3.0 days Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (7% △) @ 3.0 days North Carolina (2%) @ 6.6 days
3 North Carolina (10% △) @ 6.6 days South Carolina (3%) Cuba (2%) @ 3.8 days
23W-MITAG 1 Hong Kong (25% ▽) @ 5 hr Hong Kong (10%) @ 5 hr Hong Kong (1%) @ 5 hr
2 Vietnam (3% ▽)
3 Taiwan (1% ▽)
24W-RAGASA 1 Philippines (39% △) @ 59 hr Philippines (25%) @ 59 hr Philippines (13%) @ 59 hr
2 China (30%) @ 4.6 days China (13%) @ 4.6 days Taiwan (3%) @ 3.7 days
3 Vietnam (12%) @ 5.8 days Taiwan (5%) @ 3.7 days China (2%) @ 4.6 days
25W-NEOGURI 1 Taiwan (4%) Taiwan (1%) Taiwan (1%)
2 Japan (2% △) Japan (1%)
3 China (1%)
96E-INVEST 1 Mexico (10% ▽) @ 69 hr Mexico (2% ▽) @ 69 hr Mexico (1%) @ 69 hr
2 California (2%) @ 3.3 days
97E-INVEST 1 Mexico (30%) @ 3.9 days Mexico (16%) @ 3.9 days Mexico (4%) @ 3.9 days
2 Texas (2%) @ 5.0 days
3 California (2%)
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]
Last updated: Fri Sep 19 23:49:55 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
| Rank | Any Intensity | Hurricane Intensity | Hurricane Intensity | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:
