Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]
Last updated: Fri Jul 11 09:48:15 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
06W-SIX | 1 | Japan (22%) @ 3.6 days | Japan (12%) @ 3.6 days | Japan (1%) @ 3.6 days |
2 | China (6%) @ 5.5 days | South Korea (2%) @ 4.2 days | |
3 | South Korea (4%) @ 4.2 days | China (1%) @ 5.5 days | |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (38% △) @ 46 hr | Japan (20%) @ 46 hr | Japan (3%) @ 46 hr |
2 | China (7%) @ 4.3 days | South Korea (2%) @ 3.3 days | |
3 | South Korea (5%) @ 3.3 days | China (1% ▽) @ 4.3 days | |
|
92W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (43% ▲▲) @ 36 hr | Japan (21% ▲) @ 36 hr | Japan (4% △) @ 36 hr |
2 | South Korea (18% △) @ 54 hr | South Korea (5%) @ 54 hr | |
3 | China (9% ▼) @ 64 hr | China (2% ▼) @ 64 hr | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.