Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Fri Sep 19 01:49:23 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
07L-GABRIELLE | 1 | Europe (24% ▽) @ 12 days | North Carolina (6% △) @ 7.3 days | Bahamas Islands (3%) @ 4.1 days |
2 | North Carolina (8% △) @ 7.3 days | Virginia (4%) @ 6.9 days | New York State (2%) @ 6.2 days |
3 | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (8%) @ 4.7 days | Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (4% ▽) @ 4.7 days | Georgia (2%) @ 7.0 days |
|
23W-MITAG | 1 | China (72%) @ 36 hr | China (24%) @ 36 hr | China (3%) @ 36 hr |
2 | Hong Kong (20%) @ 23 hr | Hong Kong (8%) @ 23 hr | Taiwan (1%) @ 34 hr |
3 | Vietnam (12%) @ 4.6 days | Taiwan (3%) @ 34 hr | Hong Kong (1%) @ 23 hr |
|
24W-RAGASA | 1 | Philippines (36%) @ 63 hr | Philippines (24%) @ 63 hr | Philippines (13%) @ 63 hr |
2 | China (29%) @ 4.8 days | China (13%) @ 4.8 days | Taiwan (3%) @ 4.0 days |
3 | Vietnam (12%) @ 6.0 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 4.0 days | China (3%) @ 4.8 days |
|
25W-NEOGURI | 1 | Taiwan (2%) | | |
|
96E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (16% △) @ 58 hr | Mexico (7% △) @ 58 hr | Mexico (1%) @ 58 hr |
2 | California (2%) @ 4.1 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.