Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Sat Jul 5 15:48:55 UTC 2025

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 03L-CHANTAL 
1
 North Carolina (61%) @ 36 hr 
 North Carolina (23%) @ 36 hr 
 North Carolina (5%) @ 36 hr 
2
 South Carolina (23%) @ 30 hr 
 South Carolina (12%) @ 30 hr 
 South Carolina (3%) @ 30 hr 
3
 Virginia (18%) @ 52 hr 
 Nova Scotia (3%) @ 3.5 days 
 Georgia (1%) @ 20 hr 
 04W-MUN 
1
 Japan (2%) 
 Japan (1%) 
  
2
 China (1%) @ 11 days 
  
  
 05W-DANAS 
1
 China (62% △) @ 58 hr 
 China (23%) @ 58 hr 
 China (4%) @ 58 hr 
2
 Vietnam (14% ▼) @ 4.7 days 
 Taiwan (6% △) @ 47 hr 
 Taiwan (2%) @ 47 hr 
3
 Hong Kong (14% △) @ 39 hr 
 Hong Kong (6%) @ 39 hr 
 Japan (1%) @ 68 hr 
 96E-INVEST 
1
 Mexico (16% ▽) @ 3.5 days 
 Mexico (7% ▽) @ 3.5 days 
 Mexico (1%) @ 3.5 days 
2
 California (2%) @ 5.8 days 
  
  

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
30.8N
79.0W
31.3N
148.0E
20.8N
118.0E
14.7N
105.6W
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
4-0-0
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
67-27-5
5-3-0
82-34-7
22-10-2
Any Land
Arkansas Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
1-0-0
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
3-0-0
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California
2-0-0
California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
1-0-0
62-23-4
China
Connecticut
8-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
Dominican
Republic
Europe
18-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
2-0-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
1-0-0
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
1-0-0
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
6-1-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
1-0-0
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
1-0-0
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
2-0-0
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Florida
8-1-0
Florida
Georgia
13-3-1
Georgia
Greenland
1-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
14-6-1
Hong Kong
Iceland
5-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan
2-1-0
3-1-1
Japan
Long Island
8-2-0
Long Island
Louisiana
1-0-0
Louisiana
Madagascar Madagascar
Maine
12-2-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
11-1-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
14-2-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
1-0-0
16-7-1
Mexico
Mississippi
1-0-0
Mississippi
New Brunswick
14-2-0
New Brunswick
New England
17-3-0
New England
New Jersey
7-1-0
New Jersey
New York State
15-2-0
New York State
Newfoundland
12-1-0
Newfoundland
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
61-23-5
North Carolina
North Korea North Korea
Nova Scotia
12-3-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
8-1-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
8-2-0
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
9-2-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
4-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
4-1-0
Rhode Island
S New England
14-2-0
S New England
South Carolina
23-12-3
South Carolina
South Korea
1-0-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
12-6-2
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
2-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
2-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
1-1-0
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
57-26-5
6-1-0
USA
Vietnam
14-2-0
Vietnam
Virginia
18-2-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
30.0N
79.0W
31.0N
148.0E
20.0N
118.0E
14.0N
105.0W
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03L
CHANTAL
04W
MUN
05W
DANAS
96E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)