Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.


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Last updated: Wed Aug 24 01:45:37 UTC 2016

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:
Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-LIONROCK
1
Japan (34% ) @ 61 hr
Japan (18% ) @ 61 hr
Japan (3%) @ 61 hr
WPAC-LIONROCK
2
South Korea (7% ) @ 4.7 days
China (4%) @ 4.4 days
China (1%) @ 4.4 days
WPAC-LIONROCK
3
China (7%) @ 4.4 days
South Korea (2%) @ 4.7 days
WPAC-14W
1
Japan (15% ) @ 5.5 days
Japan (10% ) @ 5.5 days
Taiwan (2%) @ 5.4 days
WPAC-14W
2
China (9% ) @ 6.9 days
Taiwan (4%) @ 5.4 days
Philippines (2% ) @ 4.8 days
WPAC-14W
3
Taiwan (4%) @ 5.4 days
China (3%) @ 6.9 days
Japan (2%) @ 5.5 days
EP99-INVEST
1
Mexico (15% ▼) @ 3.5 days
Mexico (7% ▼) @ 3.5 days
Mexico (1%) @ 3.5 days
EP99-INVEST
2
California (2%) @ 5.7 days
EP98-INVEST
1
Hawaii (3%) @ 7.8 days
EP98-INVEST
2
Mexico (2%) @ 10 days
EP12-KAY
1
California (4% )
EP12-KAY
2
Mexico (2%)
AL99-INVEST
1
North Carolina (21% ) @ 7.3 days
North Carolina (13% ) @ 7.3 days
Puerto Rico (4%) @ 38 hr
AL99-INVEST
2
Canadian Maritimes (20%) @ 8.2 days
Cuba (12% ) @ 4.1 days
North Carolina (4%) @ 7.3 days
AL99-INVEST
3
Cuba (20% ) @ 4.1 days
Puerto Rico (11% ) @ 38 hr
Mexico (4%) @ 6.8 days
AL07-GASTON
1
Europe (29% ) @ 13 days
North Carolina (10%) @ 10 days
Florida (5%) @ 8.9 days
AL07-GASTON
2
North Carolina (11%) @ 10 days
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (6%) @ 10 days
Puerto Rico (4%) @ 5.2 days
AL07-GASTON
3
Virginia (9%) @ 11 days
Florida (5%) @ 8.9 days
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (3%) @ 10 days
AL06-FIONA
1
Canadian Maritimes (22%) @ 5.3 days
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (14%) @ 41 hr
North Carolina (3%) @ 6.8 days
AL06-FIONA
2
Europe (20%) @ 10 days
North Carolina (8%) @ 6.8 days
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (2%) @ 41 hr
AL06-FIONA
3
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (15%) @ 41 hr
Canadian Maritimes (6%) @ 5.3 days
Louisiana (1%)
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
wpac
14W
EP99
INVEST
EP98
INVEST
EP12
KAY
AL99
INVEST
AL07
GASTON
AL06
FIONA
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Cyan
Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/
Region (below)
26.0N
133.3E
18.4N
145.5E
14.5N
106.0W
11.5N
117.9W
23.5N
121.1W
16.4N
58.9W
14.4N
36.5W
26.1N
64.5W
TC LatLon (left)/
Region (below)
Alabama
8-3-1
1-0-0
Alabama
Arkansas
3-0-0
5-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
1-1-0
2-2-0
Azores
Belize
3-0-0
Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
8-6-4
6-6-3
15-14-2
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California
2-0-0
4-0-0
California
Canadian
Maritimes
20-5-0
8-4-0
22-6-0
Canadian
Maritimes
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
1-0-0
1-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
7-4-1
9-3-1
China
Connecticut
6-1-0
4-3-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
20-12-4
3-3-2
Cuba
Dominican
Republic
19-10-4
1-0-0
1-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
12-0-0
29-0-0 ▲▲
20-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
2-0-0
2-2-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
6-4-1
3-2-2
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
14-9-3
7-5-5
1-1-1
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
6-3-1
2-2-0
2-2-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
16-9-3
6-5-5
3-2-1
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
5-1-0
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
10-7-3
6-5-5
1-1-1
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
5-3-1
2-2-0
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
8-2-1
4-0-0
Georgia
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Cyan
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
wpac
14W
EP99
INVEST
EP98
INVEST
EP12
KAY
AL99
INVEST
AL07
GASTON
AL06
FIONA
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Greenland
4-0-0
5-0-0
4-0-0
Greenland
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
18-9-3
1-0-0
Haiti
Hawaii
3-0-0
Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Iceland
6-0-0
7-0-0
4-0-0
Iceland
India India
Jamaica
6-4-2
3-2-2
Jamaica
Japan
34-18-3
15-10-2
Japan
Long Island
5-1-0
3-3-0
1-0-0
Long Island
Louisiana
5-5-2
3-3-0
1-1-1
Louisiana
Maine
12-4-0
8-0-0
1-0-0
Maine
Maryland
6-0-0
7-0-0
1-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
8-3-0
6-3-0
3-2-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
15-7-1
2-0-0
2-0-0
12-7-4
1-0-0
Mexico
Mississippi
4-3-1
3-3-0
1-0-0
Mississippi
New England
12-4-0
8-3-0
4-2-0
New England
New Jersey
5-0-0
2-1-0
2-1-0
New Jersey
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
21-13-4
11-10-2
13-8-3
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
5-0-0
9-0-0
2-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
4-2-2 ▼▼
Philippines
PSU
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
4-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
17-11-4
4-4-4
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
8-3-0
6-3-0
3-2-0
S New England
South Carolina
10-3-1
4-4-1
5-2-0
South Carolina
South Korea
7-2-0
2-0-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
Taiwan
1-0-0
4-4-2
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
2-0-0
2-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
6-0-0
1-0-0
3-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
6-3-2
5-2-2
Texas
USA
3-0-0
4-0-0
36-28-12
21-18-10
11-9-1
USA
Vietnam
2-0-0
Vietnam
Virginia
8-0-0
9-3-0
1-0-0
Virginia
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (right)
26.0N
133.3E
18.4N
145.5E
14.0N
106.0W
11.0N
117.0W
23.0N
121.0W
16.0N
58.0W
14.0N
36.0W
26.0N
64.0W
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Cyan
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
wpac
14W
EP99
INVEST
EP98
INVEST
EP12
KAY
AL99
INVEST
AL07
GASTON
AL06
FIONA
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)