Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Page created July 2009.

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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Last updated: Wed Oct 8 13:50:27 UTC 2025

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
02A-SHAKHTI	1	India (10%)
10L-JERRY	1	Mexico (14% △) @ 6.0 days	Mexico (8%) @ 6.0 days	Mexico (4%) @ 6.0 days
	2	St. Lucia (13% △) @ 37 hr	Cuba (8% △) @ 5.7 days	Texas (3%) @ 9.2 days
	3	North Carolina (12%) @ 8.9 days	Bahamas Islands (7% ▽) @ 6.3 days	Puerto Rico (3%)
15E-OCTAVE	1	Mexico (1%)
	2	Hawaii (1%) @ 8.2 days
16E-PRISCILLA	1	Mexico (21% ▽) @ 46 hr	Mexico (6%) @ 46 hr	Mexico (1%) @ 46 hr
	2	California (2%) @ 55 hr
28W-HALONG	1	Japan (16% ▼▼) @ 38 hr	Japan (8% ▽) @ 38 hr	Japan (1%) @ 38 hr
	2	China (1% ▽)
29W-NAKRI	1	Japan (26%) @ 4.5 days	Japan (12%) @ 4.5 days	Taiwan (4%) @ 3.8 days
	2	China (17%) @ 4.6 days	Taiwan (7%) @ 3.8 days	Japan (3%) @ 4.5 days
	3	Taiwan (7%) @ 3.8 days	China (6%) @ 4.6 days	China (2%) @ 4.6 days
90E-INVEST	1	Mexico (63% ▲) @ 31 hr	Mexico (11% △) @ 31 hr	Mexico (1%) @ 31 hr
	2	Mississippi (2% ▽) @ 3.3 days	Louisiana (2% ▽) @ 3.1 days
	3	Louisiana (2% ▽) @ 3.1 days

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	02A SHAKHTI	10L JERRY	15E OCTAVE	16E PRISCILLA	28W HALONG	29W NAKRI	90E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Green	Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right) Region (below)	18.7N 61.9E	13.3N 51.6W	15.2N 116.8W	21.1N 112.2W	31.5N 138.5E	20.5N 137.3E	15.0N 95.1W	TC LatLon (left) Region (below)
Alabama		4-2-2					2-0-0 ▽	Alabama
Antigua		3-1-0 △						Antigua
Any Land		71-37-20 ▲▲	1-0-0	23-6-1 ▽	18-8-1 ▼▼	53-32-13	69-15-2 ▲	Any Land
Arkansas		4-0-0 △						Arkansas
Australia								Australia
Azores								Azores
Bahamas Islands		11-7-2						Bahamas Islands
Barbados		4-0-0 △						Barbados
Barbuda		6-3-1						Barbuda
Belize		5-0-0 △						Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg		4-4-2						Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California				2-0-0				California
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg		3-0-0 ▽						Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China					1-0-0 ▽	17-6-2		China
Connecticut		3-0-0						Connecticut
Costa Rica								Costa Rica
Cuba		12-8-0 △						Cuba
Dominica		9-5-3 ▲						Dominica
Dominican Republic		11-6-3 △						Dominican Republic
Europe		9-0-0 △						Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W		1-1-0 ▽						FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB		3-2-0						FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg		8-6-1						FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North		4-3-0						FL NE Coast DAB North
FL Panhandle west of 85W		1-0-0						FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N		6-5-1						FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N		3-2-0						FL West Coast FMY-29N
Florida		8-6-1 ▽						Florida
Georgia		5-3-0 ▽					2-0-0	Georgia
Greenland		1-0-0						Greenland
Grenada		5-0-0 △						Grenada
Guadeloupe		10-5-2 ▲						Guadeloupe
Guam or w/i 1deg								Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti		10-6-2						Haiti
Hawaii			1-0-0					Hawaii
Honduras		1-0-0						Honduras
Hong Kong						1-0-0		Hong Kong
Iceland		3-0-0						Iceland
India	10-0-0							India
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Green	Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	02A SHAKHTI	10L JERRY	15E OCTAVE	16E PRISCILLA	28W HALONG	29W NAKRI	90E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Jamaica		4-3-3						Jamaica
Japan					16-8-1 ▼▼	26-12-3		Japan
Long Island		3-0-0 △						Long Island
Louisiana		4-2-1					2-2-0 ▽	Louisiana
Madagascar								Madagascar
Maine		6-0-0						Maine
Martinique		10-2-2 △						Martinique
Maryland		5-0-0						Maryland
Massachusetts		3-0-0						Massachusetts
Mexico		14-8-4 △	1-0-0	21-6-1 ▽			63-11-1 ▲	Mexico
Mississippi		4-2-1					2-0-0 ▽	Mississippi
New Brunswick		6-0-0						New Brunswick
New England		6-0-0						New England
New Jersey		3-0-0 △						New Jersey
New York State		6-0-0 ▽						New York State
Newfoundland		7-1-0						Newfoundland
Nicaragua		4-1-0 △						Nicaragua
North Carolina		12-5-0						North Carolina
North Korea						2-0-0		North Korea
Nova Scotia		3-2-0 △						Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania		4-0-0 ▽						Pennsylvania
Philippines						4-2-1		Philippines
Prince Edward Island		2-0-0						Prince Edward Island
PSU or w/i 1deg		3-0-0 ▽						PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico		8-5-3 △						Puerto Rico
Rhode Island		1-0-0						Rhode Island
S. New England		3-0-0						S. New England
South Carolina		6-3-1						South Carolina
South Korea						7-1-0		South Korea
Sri Lanka								Sri Lanka
St. Lucia		13-1-0 △						St. Lucia
St. Vincent & Grenadines		8-2-0 △						St. Vincent & Grenadines
Taiwan						7-7-4		Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg		1-0-0 ▽						Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee		6-0-0						Tennessee
Texas		5-3-3						Texas
Turks & Caicos Islands		3-0-0 △						Turks & Caicos Islands
USA 48 Cont. States		21-15-7		6-1-0			8-3-0 ▽	USA 48 Cont. States
Vietnam						2-1-0		Vietnam
Virginia		5-0-0 ▽						Virginia
Region (above) TC LatLon (right)	18.0N 61.0E	13.0N 51.0W	15.0N 116.0W	21.0N 112.0W	31.0N 138.0E	20.0N 137.0E	15.0N 95.0W	Region (above) TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Light Green	Green	Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	02A SHAKHTI	10L JERRY	15E OCTAVE	16E PRISCILLA	28W HALONG	29W NAKRI	90E INVEST	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)