Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.

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[ MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]

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Last updated: Thu Sep 29 11:44:21 UTC 2016

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-CHABA	1	Philippines (18%) @ 4.6 days	Philippines (13%) @ 4.6 days	Philippines (6% ▽) @ 4.6 days
WPAC-CHABA	2	China (17% △) @ 6.7 days	Japan (9% △) @ 7.1 days	Taiwan (2%) @ 5.5 days
WPAC-CHABA	3	Japan (15% △) @ 7.1 days	China (7%) @ 6.7 days	China (2%) @ 6.7 days
EP97-INVEST	1	Mexico (15%) @ 3.5 days	Mexico (7%) @ 3.5 days	Mexico (1%) @ 3.5 days
EP97-INVEST	2	California (2%) @ 5.7 days
EP19-ULIKA	1	Hawaii (3% △)
EP18-ROSLYN	1	Mexico (18% ▲) @ 30 hr	Mexico (3%) @ 30 hr
EP18-ROSLYN	2	California (3%) @ 45 hr
AL14-MATTHEW	1	Mexico (32% △) @ 4.8 days	Mexico (15%) @ 4.8 days	Texas (5%) @ 7.7 days
AL14-MATTHEW	2	Cuba (21% △) @ 4.4 days	Cuba (11% △) @ 4.4 days	Mexico (5%) @ 4.8 days
AL14-MATTHEW	3	Belize (15% △) @ 4.3 days	Texas (9%) @ 7.7 days	Cuba (5%) @ 4.4 days

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/ Region (below)	14.5N 142.7E	15.2N 106.1W	16.0N 139.1W	22.7N 115.3W	13.9N 64.0W	TC LatLon (left)/ Region (below)
Alabama					7-2-1 △	Alabama
Arkansas					2-0-0	Arkansas
Australia						Australia
Azores						Azores
Belize					15-5-2 △	Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg					5-4-1	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California		2-0-0		3-0-0		California
Canadian Maritimes					4-1-0 ▽	Canadian Maritimes
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg					2-0-0	Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China	17-7-2 △					China
Connecticut						Connecticut
Costa Rica						Costa Rica
Cuba					21-11-5 △	Cuba
Dominican Republic					13-9-2 ▽	Dominican Republic
Europe					2-0-0	Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W					4-0-0	FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB					3-1-0	FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg					12-6-2	FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North					2-2-0	FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida					12-5-1	Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W					5-2-0	FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N					8-2-1	FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N					2-1-1	FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia					8-0-0	Georgia
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Greenland						Greenland
Guam or w/i 1deg	8-2-1 ▼▼					Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti					12-7-1	Haiti
Hawaii			3-0-0 △			Hawaii
Honduras					7-4-0 △	Honduras
Hong Kong	1-1-0					Hong Kong
Iceland					2-0-0	Iceland
India						India
Jamaica					7-6-3	Jamaica
Japan	15-9-0 △					Japan
Long Island						Long Island
Louisiana					7-4-2	Louisiana
Maine					1-0-0 ▽	Maine
Maryland					3-1-0	Maryland
Massachusetts					1-1-0 ▽	Massachusetts
Mexico		15-7-1		18-3-0 ▲	32-15-5 △	Mexico
Mississippi					5-0-0	Mississippi
New England					2-1-0 ▽	New England
New Jersey						New Jersey
Nicaragua						Nicaragua
North Carolina					10-2-1	North Carolina
Pennsylvania					4-1-0	Pennsylvania
Philippines	18-13-6					Philippines
PSU or w/i 1deg					2-0-0	PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico					2-1-0 ▼	Puerto Rico
Rhode Island						Rhode Island
S New England					1-1-0 ▽	S New England
South Carolina					4-0-0	South Carolina
South Korea	7-2-1					South Korea
Sri Lanka						Sri Lanka
Taiwan	8-5-2					Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg					4-0-0	Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee					5-0-0	Tennessee
Texas					13-9-5	Texas
USA		3-0-0		6-1-0 △	32-20-9 ▽	USA
Vietnam	5-1-0					Vietnam
Virginia					5-1-0	Virginia
Region (above)/ TC LatLon (right)	14.5N 142.7E	15.0N 106.0W	16.0N 139.0W	22.0N 115.0W	13.0N 64.0W	Region (above)/ TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Light Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac CHABA	EP97 INVEST	EP19 ULIKA	EP18 ROSLYN	AL14 MATTHEW	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)