Hurricane/Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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Last updated: Sun May 5 07:47:17 UTC 2024

Important Notes:

These probabilities are not official forecasts, and should never replace them. These probabilities are of a climatological nature only, and do not necessarily represent the actual probability for a given storm. Each storm is unique and is likely to have probabilities that are higher or lower than the mean shown here. Please consult your official agency for official forecasts.

Specifically, these statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error. Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

If any of the information presented here is confusing, contact the author or disregard all content.