Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]
Last updated: Sun Jul 6 20:48:51 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
03L-CHANTAL | 1 | North Carolina (94% ▲▲) @ 3 hr | North Carolina (13% ▼) @ 3 hr | South Carolina (1%) @ 8 hr |
2 | Virginia (61% ▲▲) @ 13 hr | Virginia (4%) @ 13 hr | North Carolina (1% ▽) @ 3 hr |
3 | Maryland (37% ▲▲) @ 17 hr | South Carolina (4% ▼) @ 8 hr | |
|
04W-MUN | 1 | Japan (1%) | | |
|
05W-DANAS | 1 | China (51% ▼) @ 38 hr | China (13% ▼) @ 38 hr | China (2%) @ 38 hr |
2 | Japan (7% △) @ 61 hr | Philippines (2% ▽) @ 5.6 days | Japan (1%) @ 61 hr |
3 | South Korea (5% △) @ 3.0 days | Japan (2%) @ 61 hr | |
|
96E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (11%) @ 3.3 days | Mexico (4%) @ 3.3 days | Mexico (1%) @ 3.3 days |
2 | California (2%) @ 4.8 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.