Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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Last updated: Mon Sep 26 20:49:35 UTC 2022

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 02S-TWO 
1
 Madagascar (5%) @ 8.5 days 
 Madagascar (2%) @ 8.5 days 
 Madagascar (2%) @ 8.5 days 
 09L-IAN 
1
 Cuba (56% ▲▲) @ 20 hr 
 Cuba (22% △) @ 20 hr 
 Cuba (10%) @ 20 hr 
2
 Florida (36% ▲▲) @ 70 hr 
 Mexico (16% ▼) @ 51 hr 
 Florida (8%) @ 70 hr 
3
 Mexico (26% ▼▼) @ 51 hr 
 Florida (16% △) @ 70 hr 
 Louisiana (6%) @ 4.5 days 
 18W-NORU 
1
 Vietnam (50% ▲) @ 65 hr 
 Vietnam (11% △) @ 65 hr 
 Japan (1%) @ 6.5 days 
2
 China (31% ▼) @ 3.0 days 
 China (11% ▽) @ 3.0 days 
  
3
 Philippines (2% ▼▼) @ 6.4 days 
 Hong Kong (2%) @ 3.2 days 
  
 19W-KULAP 
1
 Japan (16%) @ 3.4 days 
 Japan (5% ▽) @ 3.4 days 
 China (1%) @ 5.4 days 
2
 China (6% ▽) @ 5.4 days 
 China (2%) @ 5.4 days 
  
3
 South Korea (2% ▽) @ 4.6 days 
  
  
 97W-INVEST 
1
 Philippines (33% ▼) @ 3.7 days 
 Philippines (23% ▼) @ 3.7 days 
 Philippines (14% ▽) @ 3.7 days 
2
 China (23%) @ 6.0 days 
 China (14%) @ 6.0 days 
 China (3%) @ 6.0 days 
3
 Japan (16% △) @ 6.8 days 
 Japan (9% △) @ 6.8 days 
 Taiwan (2%) @ 4.2 days 
 99L-INVEST 
1
 Europe (19%) @ 14 days 
 North Carolina (8%) @ 10 days 
 Bahamas Islands (5%) @ 7.1 days 
2
 North Carolina (9%) @ 10 days 
 Bahamas Islands (5%) @ 7.1 days 
 Texas (3%) @ 11 days 
3
 New York State (8%) @ 11 days 
 Virginia (4%) @ 11 days 
 Puerto Rico (3% △) @ 5.3 days 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
02S
TWO
09L
IAN
18W
NORU
19W
KULAP
97W
INVEST
99L
INVEST
 Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
 Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
13.1S
82.6E
19.7N
83.0W
15.9N
113.9E
26.8N
141.8E
14.0N
136.5E
14.0N
35.8W
 TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
16-3-1 △
 Alabama
Antigua
1-0-0
Antigua
Any Land
6-3-2
94-56-30
71-27-2 ▽
28-12-3
63-45-21
34-23-11 ▲
 Any Land
Arkansas
7-0-0 △
3-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
1-1-0
Azores
Bahamas
Islands
16-5-1
6-5-5
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda
3-3-2
Barbuda
Belize
3-1-0 ▼▼
 Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
2-2-1
4-4-2 ▽
 Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
31-11-0 ▼
6-2-1 ▽
23-14-3
China
Connecticut
1-0-0
3-2-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
56-22-10 ▲▲
4-3-3 △
 Cuba
Dominica
2-2-0
Dominica
Dominican
Republic
1-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
8-0-0
19-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
9-3-1 △
 FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
6-2-0
2-1-1
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
30-13-7 ▲▲
6-5-4 △
 FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
6-2-0 △
2-2-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
11-4-2 △
 FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
16-8-4 △
4-3-3
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
10-5-1 ▲
2-2-0
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Florida
36-16-8 ▲▲
4-3-3 △
 Florida
Georgia
20-2-0 ▲
 Georgia
Greenland
2-0-0
3-0-0
Greenland
Grenada
1-0-0
Grenada
Guadeloupe
2-2-2
Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg		 Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
1-0-0
Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
2-2-0
3-2-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
3-0-0 ▽
5-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
 Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
02S
TWO
09L
IAN
18W
NORU
19W
KULAP
97W
INVEST
99L
INVEST
 Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica
2-1-1
Jamaica
Japan
1-1-1
16-5-0
16-9-0 △
 Japan
Long Island
1-0-0
2-2-0
Long Island
Louisiana
14-11-6
2-2-0
Louisiana
Madagascar
5-2-2
Madagascar
Maine
3-0-0
7-0-0
Maine
Martinique
2-0-0
Martinique
Maryland
5-0-0
5-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
5-0-0
4-2-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
26-16-5 ▼▼
2-2-0
Mexico
Mississippi
9-2-1
Mississippi
New Brunswick
2-0-0
6-1-0
New Brunswick
New England
5-0-0
7-2-0
New England
New Jersey
1-1-0
New Jersey
New York State
3-0-0
8-2-0
New York State
Newfoundland
3-0-0
5-2-0 △
 Newfoundland
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
21-5-0 ▲
9-8-1
North Carolina
North Korea
1-0-0
North Korea
Nova Scotia
3-0-0
4-2-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
4-0-0
7-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
2-1-0 ▼▼
33-23-14 ▼
 Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
1-0-0
1-0-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
1-0-0
4-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
3-3-3 △
 Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
5-0-0
4-2-0
S New England
South Carolina
13-2-0 △
3-3-1
South Carolina
South Korea
2-0-0 ▽
2-1-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
1-0-0
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
1-1-0 ▽
1-0-0
6-4-2
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
5-2-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
12-0-0 △
1-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
16-11-4 △
4-3-3
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
2-1-1
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
62-37-19 ▲▲
17-14-8 △
 USA
Vietnam
50-11-0 ▲
9-2-0
Vietnam
Virginia
11-1-0 △
7-4-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
13.0S
82.0E
19.0N
83.0W
15.0N
113.0E
26.0N
141.0E
14.0N
136.0E
14.0N
35.0W
 Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
 Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
02S
TWO
09L
IAN
18W
NORU
19W
KULAP
97W
INVEST
99L
INVEST
 Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)