Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Mon Jun 27 19:49:20 UTC 2022
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
03E-CELIA | 1 | Mexico (5%) @ 53 hr | | |
2 | California (1%) | | |
|
94A-INVEST | 1 | India (27% ▼▼) @ 31 hr | India (7%) @ 31 hr | India (7% △) @ 31 hr |
|
94L-INVEST | 1 | St. Vincent & Grenadines (18% △) @ 40 hr | Cuba (10% ▽) | Haiti (2% ▼) |
2 | Grenada (14%) | Mexico (9% △) | Cuba (2% ▼) |
3 | Cuba (10% ▽) | Haiti (2% ▼) | Puerto Rico (1%) |
|
97W-INVEST | 1 | China (42% ▲) @ 69 hr | China (16% △) @ 69 hr | Philippines (1% ▼▼) @ 36 hr |
2 | Vietnam (33% ▲) @ 3.7 days | Philippines (11% ▼▼) @ 36 hr | China (1%) @ 69 hr |
3 | Philippines (32% ▼▼) @ 36 hr | Vietnam (5% △) @ 3.7 days | |
|
98W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (79%) @ 54 hr | Philippines (16%) @ 54 hr | Philippines (11%) @ 54 hr |
2 | Vietnam (21%) @ 8.3 days | China (1%) | |
3 | Taiwan (8%) @ 8.2 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.