Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.

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[ MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]

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Last updated: Sat May 26 11:49:01 UTC 2012

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and mean time to that landfall*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-SANVU	1	Japan (20%↓) in 4.0 days	Japan (9%↓) in 4.0 days	Taiwan (1%)
WPAC-SANVU	2	China (8%↑) in 6.1 days	South Korea (2%)	South Korea (1%)
WPAC-SANVU	3	South Korea (4%)	China (2%) in 6.1 days	Japan (1%) in 4.0 days
EP02-BUD	1	Mexico (63%) in 21 hours	Mexico (21%↑) in 21 hours	Mexico (5%) in 21 hours
AL94-INVEST	1	North Carolina (30%↑↑) in 25 hours	North Carolina (17%↑) in 25 hours	North Carolina (5%) in 25 hours
AL94-INVEST	2	Canadian Maritimes (25%) in 3.3 days	Canadian Maritimes (6%) in 3.3 days
AL94-INVEST	3	Europe (20%↓) in 10 days	Massachusetts (4%) in 39 hours
AL02-BERYL	1	North Carolina (30%) in 25 hours	North Carolina (17%) in 25 hours	North Carolina (5%) in 25 hours
AL02-BERYL	2	Canadian Maritimes (25%) in 3.3 days	Canadian Maritimes (6%) in 3.3 days
AL02-BERYL	3	Europe (20%) in 10 days	Massachusetts (4%) in 39 hours

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac SANVU	ep02 BUD	al94 INVEST	al02 BERYL	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
Region (below)	25.0,142.1	20.0,-105.0	32.0,-74.0	32.0,-75.0	Region (below)
Alabama			1-0-0	1-0-0	Alabama
Any Land	32-16-4 ↓	OVERLAND	55-22-1 ↑	55-22-1	Any Land
Azores					Azores
Belize					Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg			4-0-0	4-0-0	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California					California
Canadian Maritimes			25-6-0	25-6-0	Canadian Maritimes
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg			1-0-0	1-0-0	Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China	8-2-1 ↑				China
Connecticut			5-2-0	5-2-0	Connecticut
Costa Rica					Costa Rica
Cuba					Cuba
Dominican Republic					Dominican Republic
Europe			20-0-0 ↓	20-0-0	Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W			1-0-0	1-0-0	FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB			1-0-0	1-0-0	FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg			2-1-0	2-1-0	FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North			1-0-0	1-0-0	FL NE Coast DAB North
Florida			4-1-0	4-1-0	Florida
FL Panhandle west of 85W					FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N			2-1-0	2-1-0	FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N					FL West Coast FMY-29N
Georgia			5-1-0	5-1-0	Georgia
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac SANVU	ep02 BUD	al94 INVEST	al02 BERYL	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)
Greenland			6-0-0	6-0-0	Greenland
Haiti					Haiti
Hawaii					Hawaii
Honduras					Honduras
Hong Kong					Hong Kong
Iceland			6-0-0	6-0-0	Iceland
India					India
Jamaica					Jamaica
Japan	20-9-1 ↓				Japan
Long Island			6-2-0	6-2-0	Long Island
Louisiana			1-0-0	1-0-0	Louisiana
Maine			6-1-0	6-1-0	Maine
Maryland			4-0-0	4-0-0	Maryland
Massachusetts			8-4-0	8-4-0	Massachusetts
Mexico		OVERLAND			Mexico
Mississippi					Mississippi
New England			10-5-0	10-5-0	New England
New Jersey			2-0-0	2-0-0	New Jersey
Nicaragua					Nicaragua
North Carolina			30-17-5 ↑↑	30-17-5	North Carolina
Pennsylvania			4-0-0	4-0-0	Pennsylvania
PSU or w/i 1deg			1-0-0	1-0-0	PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico					Puerto Rico
Rhode Island			3-1-0	3-1-0	Rhode Island
South Carolina			5-1-0	5-1-0	South Carolina
Southern New England			9-4-0	9-4-0	Southern New England
South Korea	4-2-1				South Korea
Sri Lanka					Sri Lanka
Taiwan	1-1-1				Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg			1-0-0	1-0-0	Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Texas			1-0-0	1-0-0	Texas
USA		1-0-0	30-15-1 ↑	30-15-1	USA
Virginia			4-1-0	4-1-0	Virginia
Region (above)	25.0,142.1	20.0,-105.0	32.0,-74.0	32.0,-75.0	Region (above)
Map marker (right)	Magenta	Red	Orange	Yellow	Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and TC Name (right)	wpac SANVU	ep02 BUD	al94 INVEST	al02 BERYL	Basin, TC #, and TC Name (left)