Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Oct 21 11:50:30 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04S-CHENGE | 1 | Madagascar (27%) @ 4.8 days | Madagascar (6% △) @ 4.8 days | Madagascar (2%) @ 4.8 days |
|
30W-FENGSHEN | 1 | Vietnam (51% △) @ 44 hr | China (12% ▼) @ 51 hr | Japan (1%) @ 4.7 days |
2 | China (35% ▼▼) @ 51 hr | Vietnam (11% △) @ 44 hr | China (1%) @ 51 hr |
3 | Hong Kong (3%) @ 3.1 days | Hong Kong (2%) @ 3.1 days | |
|
92A-INVEST | 1 | India (1% ▽) | | |
|
93B-INVEST | 1 | India (50% ▲▲) @ 43 hr | India (8%) @ 43 hr | Sri Lanka (6% ▽) @ 23 hr |
2 | Sri Lanka (32% ▽) @ 23 hr | Sri Lanka (6% ▽) @ 23 hr | India (3%) @ 43 hr |
|
95S-INVEST | 1 | Australia (2% △) | | |
|
97W-INVEST | 1 | China (42% ▲) @ 50 hr | Taiwan (25% ▲▲) @ 21 hr | Taiwan (11% ▲) @ 21 hr |
2 | Taiwan (36% ▲▲) @ 21 hr | China (13% ▽) @ 50 hr | China (2% ▽) @ 50 hr |
3 | Japan (12% ▼) @ 67 hr | Japan (4% ▽) @ 67 hr | Japan (1%) @ 67 hr |
|
98L-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (36%) @ 4.1 days | Cuba (21% △) @ 4.3 days | Cuba (11%) @ 4.3 days |
2 | Cuba (26%) @ 4.3 days | Mexico (18%) @ 4.1 days | Mexico (7%) @ 4.1 days |
3 | Belize (20% △) @ 3.4 days | Belize (11% △) @ 3.4 days | Haiti (5%) @ 3.2 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.