Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Page created July 2009.

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]


Last updated: Tue Oct 21 11:50:30 UTC 2025

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 04S-CHENGE 
1
 Madagascar (27%) @ 4.8 days 
 Madagascar (6% △) @ 4.8 days 
 Madagascar (2%) @ 4.8 days 
 30W-FENGSHEN 
1
 Vietnam (51% △) @ 44 hr 
 China (12% ▼) @ 51 hr 
 Japan (1%) @ 4.7 days 
2
 China (35% ▼▼) @ 51 hr 
 Vietnam (11% △) @ 44 hr 
 China (1%) @ 51 hr 
3
 Hong Kong (3%) @ 3.1 days 
 Hong Kong (2%) @ 3.1 days 
  
 92A-INVEST 
1
 India (1% ▽) 
  
  
 93B-INVEST 
1
 India (50% ▲▲) @ 43 hr 
 India (8%) @ 43 hr 
 Sri Lanka (6% ▽) @ 23 hr 
2
 Sri Lanka (32% ▽) @ 23 hr 
 Sri Lanka (6% ▽) @ 23 hr 
 India (3%) @ 43 hr 
 95S-INVEST 
1
 Australia (2% △) 
  
  
 97W-INVEST 
1
 China (42% ▲) @ 50 hr 
 Taiwan (25% ▲▲) @ 21 hr 
 Taiwan (11% ▲) @ 21 hr 
2
 Taiwan (36% ▲▲) @ 21 hr 
 China (13% ▽) @ 50 hr 
 China (2% ▽) @ 50 hr 
3
 Japan (12% ▼) @ 67 hr 
 Japan (4% ▽) @ 67 hr 
 Japan (1%) @ 67 hr 
 98L-INVEST 
1
 Mexico (36%) @ 4.1 days 
 Cuba (21% △) @ 4.3 days 
 Cuba (11%) @ 4.3 days 
2
 Cuba (26%) @ 4.3 days 
 Mexico (18%) @ 4.1 days 
 Mexico (7%) @ 4.1 days 
3
 Belize (20% △) @ 3.4 days 
 Belize (11% △) @ 3.4 days 
 Haiti (5%) @ 3.2 days 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
04S
CHENGE
30W
FENGSHEN
92A
INVEST
93B
INVEST
95S
INVEST
97W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
9.6S
65.2E
17.1N
111.6E
9.9N
65.8E
9.9N
81.5E
6.1S
96.5E
24.4N
123.4E
14.0N
69.8W
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
12-3-2
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
38-7-2
77-26-1
4-0-0
78-47-20
89-68-40
Any Land
Arkansas
6-0-0
Arkansas
Australia
2-0-0
Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
17-11-4
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize
20-11-2
Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
3-3-0
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
35-12-1 ▼▼
42-13-2
China
Connecticut Connecticut
Costa Rica
3-0-0
Costa Rica
Cuba
26-21-11
Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
3-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
2-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
1-0-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
3-0-0
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
10-5-4
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
1-1-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
4-3-1
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
9-4-4
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
2-2-2
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Florida
9-5-4
Florida
Georgia
6-0-0
Georgia
Greenland
5-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
8-6-5
Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras
16-9-0
Honduras
Hong Kong
3-2-0
2-0-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
2-0-0
Iceland
India
1-0-0
50-8-3 ▲▲
India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
04S
CHENGE
30W
FENGSHEN
92A
INVEST
93B
INVEST
95S
INVEST
97W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica
6-5-1
Jamaica
Japan
1-1-1
12-4-1
Japan
Long Island Long Island
Louisiana
15-8-3
Louisiana
Madagascar
27-6-2
Madagascar
Maine Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
5-2-0
Maryland
Massachusetts Massachusetts
Mexico
36-18-7
Mexico
Mississippi
10-0-0
Mississippi
New Brunswick
1-0-0
New Brunswick
New England New England
New Jersey New Jersey
New York State
3-2-0
New York State
Newfoundland Newfoundland
Nicaragua
15-10-0
Nicaragua
North Carolina
12-5-2
North Carolina
North Korea
3-0-0
North Korea
Nova Scotia
1-1-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
7-2-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
2-1-0
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island Rhode Island
S. New England S. New England
South Carolina
7-6-2
South Carolina
South Korea
7-2-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka
32-6-6
Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
1-0-0
36-25-11 ▲▲
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
1-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
10-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
12-9-4
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
1-0-0
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA 48 Cont. States
34-26-15
USA 48 Cont. States
Vietnam
51-11-0
2-0-0
Vietnam
Virginia
7-2-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
9.0S
65.0E
17.0N
111.0E
9.0N
65.0E
9.0N
81.0E
6.0S
96.0E
24.0N
123.0E
14.0N
69.0W
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
04S
CHENGE
30W
FENGSHEN
92A
INVEST
93B
INVEST
95S
INVEST
97W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)