Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Wed Nov 14 01:48:46 UTC 2018

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 03S-ALCIDE 
1
 Madagascar (48% ▼▼) @ 54 hr 
 Madagascar (5% ▽) @ 54 hr 
  
 96L-INVEST 
1
 Dominican Republic (38% ▲) @ 26 hr 
 Dominican Republic (18% △) @ 26 hr 
 Bahamas Islands (10%) @ 3.5 days 
2
 Puerto Rico (28% △) @ 10 hr 
 Bahamas Islands (17%) @ 3.5 days 
 Puerto Rico (7%) @ 10 hr 
3
 Haiti (25% △) @ 38 hr 
 Florida (16%) @ 5.9 days 
 Florida (7%) @ 5.9 days 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03S
ALCIDE
04S
BOUCHRA
91W
INVEST
96L
INVEST
96S
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
10.0S
49.0E
7.2S
91.6E
7.6N
118.9E
17.4N
65.0W
8.0S
102.0E
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
9-3-1
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
70-8-0 ▼▼
1-1-0
87-58-29
Any Land
Arkansas
4-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
24-17-10
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize
6-1-0
Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
5-4-1
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China China
Connecticut
4-0-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
22-11-3
Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
38-18-5
Dominican
Republic
Europe
14-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
5-1-1
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
8-7-3
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
16-13-3
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
7-4-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
22-16-7
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
5-1-1
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
14-10-3
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
6-4-0
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
13-4-0
Georgia
Greenland
3-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
25-11-3
Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Iceland
8-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03S
ALCIDE
04S
BOUCHRA
91W
INVEST
96L
INVEST
96S
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica
8-6-2
Jamaica
Japan Japan
Long Island
3-0-0
Long Island
Louisiana
5-4-1
Louisiana
Madagascar
48-5-0 ▼▼
Madagascar
Maine
11-2-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
7-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
9-3-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
19-9-5
Mexico
Mississippi
7-2-1
Mississippi
New Brunswick
9-1-0
New Brunswick
New England
12-4-0
New England
Newfoundland
10-2-0
Newfoundland
New Jersey
4-0-0
New Jersey
New York State
10-0-0
New York State
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
21-12-1
North Carolina
North Korea North Korea
Nova Scotia
9-4-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
7-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
3-1-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
4-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
28-15-7
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
9-3-0
S New England
South Carolina
14-5-1
South Carolina
South Korea South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
1-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
6-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
11-6-5
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
10-3-1
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
46-33-14
USA
Vietnam Vietnam
Virginia
10-1-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
10.0S
49.0E
7.0S
91.0E
7.0N
118.0E
17.0N
65.0W
8.0S
102.0E
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
03S
ALCIDE
04S
BOUCHRA
91W
INVEST
96L
INVEST
96S
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)