Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Fri Sep 22 23:49:10 UTC 2017

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 12L-INVEST 
1
 Nova Scotia (30% ▽) @ 20 hr 
 Nova Scotia (11%) @ 20 hr 
  
2
 Newfoundland (26%) @ 39 hr 
 Newfoundland (4%) @ 39 hr 
  
3
 Europe (21%) @ 5.7 days 
 Prince Edward Island (2%) @ 27 hr 
  
 14L-LEE 
1
 Europe (9%) 
 Azores (1%) 
  
2
 Azores (4%) 
  
  
3
 South Carolina (2%) 
  
  
 15L-MARIA 
1
 Bahamas Islands (31% ▼) @ 38 hr 
 Bahamas Islands (19% ▽) @ 38 hr 
 Bahamas Islands (15% ▽) @ 38 hr 
2
 North Carolina (24% △) @ 5.2 days 
 North Carolina (15% ▲) @ 5.2 days 
 Florida (9%) @ 3.6 days 
3
 Europe (19% ▲) @ 9.2 days 
 Florida (14% ▽) @ 3.6 days 
 North Carolina (3%) @ 5.2 days 
 90W-INVEST 
1
 Philippines (80% ▲) @ 13 hr 
 Philippines (40% △) @ 13 hr 
 Philippines (17%) @ 13 hr 
2
 China (37% △) @ 3.5 days 
 China (13%) @ 3.5 days 
 Taiwan (1%) @ 60 hr 
3
 Vietnam (24% △) @ 4.5 days 
 Vietnam (3%) @ 4.5 days 
 China (1%) @ 3.5 days 
 92W-INVEST 
1
 Philippines (46%) @ 6.1 days 
 Philippines (27%) @ 6.1 days 
 Philippines (22%) @ 6.1 days 
2
 China (11%) @ 9.1 days 
 China (4%) @ 9.1 days 
 Guam or w/i 1deg (1%) 
3
 Vietnam (10%) 
 Japan (2%) @ 15 days 
  
 98E-INVEST 
1
 Mexico (33% ▼) @ 54 hr 
 Mexico (15% ▽) @ 54 hr 
 Mexico (2%) @ 54 hr 
2
 California (1%) 
  
  

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
12L
INVEST
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
90W
INVEST
92W
INVEST
98E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
39.4N
69.2W
30.5N
49.0W
22.8N
71.2W
16.0N
122.8E
5.9N
150.2E
17.1N
105.2W
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
5-1-0
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
51-16-0
10-1-0
61-41-18 ▼▼
84-47-18
70-32-23
38-16-3
Any Land
Arkansas
5-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
4-1-0
Azores
Bahamas
Islands
31-19-15
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
7-6-3
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California
1-0-0
California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
4-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
37-13-1
11-4-0
China
Connecticut
7-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
5-2-1
Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
1-0-0
1-0-0 ▼▼
Dominican
Republic
Europe
21-0-0
9-0-0
19-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
7-2-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
8-7-3
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
16-14-10
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
4-2-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
18-14-9
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
4-3-1
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
11-10-8
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
11-5-1
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
10-4-1
Georgia
Greenland
4-0-0
4-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
1-1-1
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
1-0-0
Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
3-2-0
1-1-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
2-0-0
1-0-0
7-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
12L
INVEST
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
90W
INVEST
92W
INVEST
98E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan
3-0-0
7-2-0
Japan
Long Island
6-1-0
Long Island
Louisiana
4-3-2
Louisiana
Maine
4-0-0
10-2-0
Maine
Martinique Martinique
Maryland
13-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
5-1-0
10-3-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
3-3-0
33-15-2
Mexico
Mississippi
4-1-0
Mississippi
New Brunswick
10-2-0
1-0-0
10-2-0
New Brunswick
New England
7-2-0
13-3-0
New England
Newfoundland
26-4-0
2-0-0
13-1-0
Newfoundland
New Jersey
9-0-0
New Jersey
New York State
14-1-0
New York State
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
1-0-0
2-0-0
24-15-3
North Carolina
North Korea
1-0-0
1-0-0
North Korea
Nova Scotia
30-11-0
1-0-0
13-6-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
8-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
80-40-17
46-27-22
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
9-2-0
1-0-0
8-1-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
6-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
3-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
5-1-0
10-3-0
S New England
South Carolina
1-1-0
2-0-0
11-3-1
South Carolina
South Korea
1-0-0
4-1-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
4-2-1
1-1-0
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
4-1-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
6-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
2-2-2
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
11-4-1 ▼▼
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
9-3-0
2-0-0
37-29-12
9-2-0
USA
Vietnam
24-3-0
10-1-0
Vietnam
Virginia
17-2-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
39.0N
69.0W
30.0N
49.0W
22.0N
71.0W
16.0N
122.0E
5.0N
150.0E
17.0N
105.0W
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
12L
INVEST
14L
LEE
15L
MARIA
90W
INVEST
92W
INVEST
98E
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)