Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Oct 18 11:48:24 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
04S-FOUR | 1 | Madagascar (5%) @ 8.8 days | Madagascar (2%) @ 8.8 days | Madagascar (2%) @ 8.8 days |
|
30W-FENGSHEN | 1 | Philippines (89%) @ 11 hr | Philippines (36%) @ 11 hr | Philippines (16%) @ 11 hr |
2 | China (29%) @ 4.5 days | China (11%) @ 4.5 days | Taiwan (1%) @ 4.4 days |
3 | Vietnam (28%) @ 4.8 days | Vietnam (6%) @ 4.8 days | |
|
91E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (37% △) @ 3.4 days | Mexico (19%) @ 3.4 days | Mexico (4%) @ 3.4 days |
2 | Texas (2%) @ 5.0 days | | |
3 | California (1%) @ 8.9 days | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.