Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Sat Jul 12 06:48:56 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
06W-SIX | 1 | Japan (21%) @ 3.8 days | Japan (11%) @ 3.8 days | Japan (1%) @ 3.8 days |
2 | China (7%) @ 5.7 days | South Korea (2%) @ 4.3 days | |
3 | South Korea (3%) @ 4.3 days | China (2%) @ 5.7 days | |
|
92W-INVEST | 1 | South Korea (33% △) @ 30 hr | South Korea (7% ▽) @ 30 hr | China (2%) @ 24 hr |
2 | China (32% ▲▲) @ 24 hr | China (7% △) @ 24 hr | South Korea (1%) @ 30 hr |
3 | Japan (14% ▼▼) @ 56 hr | North Korea (1%) @ 41 hr | |
|
94W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (36% ▽) @ 4.4 days | Philippines (26% ▽) @ 4.4 days | Philippines (17%) @ 4.4 days |
2 | China (22% △) @ 7.1 days | China (13% △) @ 7.1 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 5.5 days |
3 | Vietnam (11%) @ 7.9 days | Japan (5% △) @ 7.6 days | China (2%) @ 7.1 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.