Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Mon Sep 23 03:49:28 UTC 2019

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 10L-JERRY 
1
 Europe (21%) @ 8.9 days 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (13% △) @ 39 hr 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (5%) @ 39 hr 
2
 Newfoundland (19%) @ 5.3 days 
 North Carolina (5% ▽) @ 8.7 days 
 North Carolina (2%) @ 8.7 days 
3
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (19% ▲) @ 39 hr 
 Nova Scotia (4% ▽) @ 4.8 days 
 Louisiana (1%) 
 12L-KAREN 
1
 Mexico (30% △) @ 5.0 days 
 Cuba (16% ▽) @ 5.0 days 
 Cuba (8%) @ 5.0 days 
2
 Cuba (22%) @ 5.0 days 
 Mexico (15% ▽) @ 5.0 days 
 Mexico (5%) @ 5.0 days 
3
 Belize (18% △) @ 4.4 days 
 Belize (9%) @ 4.4 days 
 Texas (4%) @ 8.9 days 
 13E-KIKO 
1
 Hawaii (3%) @ 5.5 days 
  
  
 13L-13L 
1
 Iceland (7%) @ 20 days 
 Nova Scotia (3%) 
 New York State (1%) 
2
 Europe (7%) @ 12 days 
 Virginia (1%) 
 Connecticut (1%) 
3
 Turks & Caicos Islands (4%) @ 7.6 days 
 New York State (1%) 
  
 14E-MARIO 
1
 Mexico (28%) @ 28 hr 
 Mexico (8%) @ 28 hr 
 Mexico (1%) @ 28 hr 
2
 California (4%) @ 63 hr 
  
  
 18W-TAPAH 
1
 Japan (71% △) 
 Japan (14% ▼▼) 
 Japan (1% ▽) 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
10L
JERRY
12L
KAREN
13E
KIKO
13L
13L
14E
MARIO
18W
TAPAH
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
27.1N
67.1W
12.9N
63.2W
15.6N
134.1W
10.8N
20.2W
23.1N
112.7W
37.6N
134.9E
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
1-0-0
9-3-1
Alabama
Antigua Antigua
Any Land
37-15-3
83-56-32 ▼▼
3-0-0
34-5-1
29-8-1
72-14-1 ▼▼
Any Land
Arkansas
3-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores Azores
Bahamas
Islands
2-1-1
13-7-1
4-0-0
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda Barbuda
Belize
18-9-2
Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
19-13-5
5-5-2
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California
4-0-0
California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
1-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China China
Connecticut
1-1-1
Connecticut
Costa Rica
1-0-0
Costa Rica
Cuba
22-16-8
Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
2-0-0
6-5-3
2-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
21-0-0
3-0-0
7-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
1-1-0
2-0-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
1-0-0
2-0-0
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
1-1-1
11-6-3
4-0-0
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
1-1-0
2-2-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
2-2-1
10-5-3
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
5-3-2
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
1-1-1
8-2-2
4-0-0
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
1-0-0
2-1-1
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
3-0-0
6-0-0
Georgia
Greenland
4-0-0
1-0-0
Greenland
Grenada
6-1-0 ▼▼
Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
2-0-0
9-8-4
Haiti
Hawaii
3-0-0
Hawaii
Honduras
13-7-0
Honduras
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Iceland
3-0-0
2-0-0
7-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
10L
JERRY
12L
KAREN
13E
KIKO
13L
13L
14E
MARIO
18W
TAPAH
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica
5-5-1
Jamaica
Japan
71-14-1
Japan
Long Island
1-1-0
1-1-1
Long Island
Louisiana
1-1-1
8-6-3
Louisiana
Madagascar Madagascar
Maine
1-0-0
1-0-0
Maine
Martinique
1-0-0
Martinique
Maryland
1-0-0
4-1-0
1-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
2-1-0
1-0-0
1-1-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
30-15-5
28-8-1
Mexico
Mississippi
1-0-0
6-0-0
Mississippi
New Brunswick
4-1-0
New Brunswick
New England
2-1-0
1-0-0
1-1-1
New England
Newfoundland
19-3-0
2-0-0
3-0-0
Newfoundland
New Jersey
2-1-0
New Jersey
New York State
2-1-0
3-1-0
2-1-1
New York State
Nicaragua
10-6-0
Nicaragua
North Carolina
9-5-2
11-4-1
1-1-0
North Carolina
North Korea North Korea
Nova Scotia
9-4-0
4-3-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
1-0-0
4-1-0
1-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
2-0-0
3-0-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
1-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
1-0-0
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island Rhode Island
S New England
2-1-0
1-0-0
1-1-1
S New England
South Carolina
4-1-0
4-4-1
1-0-0
South Carolina
South Korea South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia
1-0-0
2-0-0
St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
2-0-0 ▼▼
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
1-0-0
2-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
1-0-0
7-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
9-7-4
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
2-0-0
4-0-0
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
7-4-1
28-20-12
2-2-1
8-2-0
USA
Vietnam Vietnam
Virginia
1-0-0
7-1-0
1-1-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
27.0N
67.0W
12.0N
63.0W
15.0N
134.0W
10.0N
20.0W
23.0N
112.0W
37.0N
134.0E
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
10L
JERRY
12L
KAREN
13E
KIKO
13L
13L
14E
MARIO
18W
TAPAH
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)