Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Jul 8 05:49:21 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity |
05W-DANAS | 1 | China (46%) @ 24 hr | China (20%) @ 24 hr | China (7%) @ 24 hr |
2 | South Korea (15% △) @ 49 hr | South Korea (3%) @ 49 hr | |
3 | Japan (13%) @ 67 hr | Taiwan (2% ▼) | |
|
91W-INVEST | 1 | Japan (28%) @ 4.1 days | Japan (16%) @ 4.1 days | Japan (5%) @ 4.1 days |
2 | China (11%) @ 5.3 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 4.5 days | Taiwan (4%) @ 4.5 days |
3 | Taiwan (5%) @ 4.5 days | China (4%) @ 5.3 days | China (1%) @ 5.3 days |
|
96E-INVEST | 1 | Mexico (5% ▼) @ 3.8 days | | |
2 | California (1%) | | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.