Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.


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Last updated: Fri Jul 31 14:42:49 UTC 2015

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-SOUDELOR
1
Japan (12% ) @ 8.5 days
Philippines (9%) @ 7.3 days
Taiwan (2% ) @ 11 days
WPAC-SOUDELOR
2
Philippines (10%) @ 7.3 days
Japan (4% ) @ 8.5 days
Philippines (2%) @ 7.3 days
WPAC-SOUDELOR
3
China (7% ) @ 10 days
China (3%) @ 10 days
China (1%) @ 10 days
EP09-GUILLERMO
1
Mexico (3% )
Hawaii (1%)
Hawaii (1%)
EP09-GUILLERMO
2
Hawaii (1%)
AL94-INVEST
1
Europe (18% ) @ 13 days
North Carolina (10% ) @ 11 days
Puerto Rico (5% ) @ 5.7 days
AL94-INVEST
2
North Carolina (14% ) @ 11 days
South Carolina (7%) @ 11 days
South Carolina (4%) @ 11 days
AL94-INVEST
3
Canadian Maritimes (11% ) @ 12 days
Puerto Rico (6%) @ 5.7 days
North Carolina (3% ) @ 11 days
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
SOUDELOR
EP09
GUILLERMO
AL94
INVEST
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/
Region (below)
13.9N
156.0E
12.1N
132.0W
12.5N
32.2W
TC LatLon (left)/
Region (below)
Alabama
1-1-1
Alabama
Arkansas
2-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
1-1-0
Azores
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
3-3-1
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Canadian
Maritimes
11-5-0
Canadian
Maritimes
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
7-3-1
China
Connecticut
3-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
3-2-1
Cuba
Dominican
Republic
1-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
18-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
2-2-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
3-1-1
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
5-3-3
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
3-3-1
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
6-5-3
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
5-3-3
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
2-2-1
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
2-0-0
Georgia
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
SOUDELOR
EP09
GUILLERMO
AL94
INVEST
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Greenland
2-0-0
Greenland
Guam
or w/i 1deg
2-1-0
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
1-0-0
Haiti
Hawaii
1-1-1
Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
2-0-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
8-0-0
Iceland
India India
Jamaica
3-1-1
Jamaica
Japan
12-4-0
Japan
Long Island
1-1-0
Long Island
Louisiana
2-2-0
Louisiana
Maine
5-1-0
Maine
Maryland
6-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
4-1-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
3-0-0
2-2-1
Mexico
Mississippi
2-2-1
Mississippi
New England
5-1-0
New England
New Jersey
2-0-0
New Jersey
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
14-10-3
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
10-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
10-9-2
Philippines
PSU
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
6-6-5
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island Rhode Island
S New England
4-1-0
S New England
South Carolina
9-7-4
South Carolina
South Korea
1-0-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
Taiwan
2-2-2
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
2-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
3-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
3-2-2
Texas
USA
20-17-12
USA
Vietnam
3-0-0
Vietnam
Virginia
9-3-0
Virginia
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (right)
13.9N
156.0E
12.0N
132.0W
12.0N
32.0W
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
SOUDELOR
EP09
GUILLERMO
AL94
INVEST
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)