Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Wed Jun 7 14:48:47 UTC 2023
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
| Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity |
| 02A-BIPARJOY | 1 | India (23% ▲▲) | India (3% △) | India (2%) |
|
| 03W-GUCHOL | 1 | Philippines (39% △) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (27%) @ 3.0 days | Philippines (14%) @ 3.0 days |
| 2 | China (29%) @ 5.3 days | China (16%) @ 5.3 days | China (4%) @ 5.3 days |
| 3 | Vietnam (14%) @ 6.6 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 4.5 days | Taiwan (2%) @ 4.5 days |
|
| 90W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (21%) @ 6.3 days | Philippines (15%) @ 6.3 days | Philippines (8%) @ 6.3 days |
| 2 | China (14%) @ 8.7 days | China (9%) @ 8.7 days | China (3%) @ 8.7 days |
| 3 | Japan (13%) @ 8.0 days | Japan (6%) @ 8.0 days | Guam or w/i 1deg (2%) @ 35 hr |
|
| 99W-INVEST | 1 | Vietnam (67% ▲▲) @ 17 hr | China (16% ▼) | China (1%) |
| 2 | China (59% ▼▼) | Vietnam (8%) @ 17 hr | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
