Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.


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Last updated: Tue Sep 21 13:50:34 UTC 2021

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
 15L-INVEST 
1
 Europe (23%) @ 4.2 days 
  
  
2
 Iceland (7%) @ 4.3 days 
  
  
3
 Greenland (2%) 
  
  
 16L-PETER 
1
 Bahamas Islands (24% ▲▲) @ 3.0 days 
 Bahamas Islands (17% ▲) @ 3.0 days 
 Bahamas Islands (15% ▲) @ 3.0 days 
2
 Newfoundland (18%) @ 6.4 days 
 Florida (13% ▲) @ 4.9 days 
 Florida (9% ▲) @ 4.9 days 
3
 North Carolina (15%) @ 6.3 days 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (11% ▲) @ 3.4 days 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (7% ▲) @ 3.4 days 
 17L-ROSE 
1
 Europe (8% ▽) 
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (2% ▽) 
  
2
 Bermuda or w/i 1 deg (2% ▼) 
 Azores (1% ▽) 
  
3
 Azores (1% ▽) 
  
  
 90S-INVEST 
1
 Madagascar (2%) @ 6.2 days 
  
  
 90W-INVEST 
1
 Vietnam (48%) @ 3.5 days 
 Vietnam (13%) @ 3.5 days 
 Vietnam (2%) @ 3.5 days 
2
 Philippines (17%) 
 Philippines (3%) 
  
3
 China (11%) 
 China (3%) 
  
 98L-INVEST 
1
 St. Lucia (12% ▼) @ 5.5 days 
 Maine (12% ▲▲) @ 15 days 
 Alabama (7% ▲) @ 14 days 
2
 Florida (11% ▲) @ 11 days 
 Florida (8% △) @ 11 days 
 Barbuda (5%) @ 5.5 days 
3
 Europe (9% ▼) @ 15 days 
 Mississippi (5% ▲) @ 14 days 
 Bahamas Islands (5%) @ 11 days 
 99W-INVEST 
1
 Philippines (19%) @ 7.3 days 
 Philippines (13%) @ 7.3 days 
 Philippines (8%) @ 7.3 days 
2
 Japan (13%) @ 9.3 days 
 China (6%) @ 9.5 days 
 Guam or w/i 1deg (3%) @ 3.1 days 
3
 China (11%) @ 9.5 days 
 Japan (4%) @ 9.3 days 
 Japan (1%) @ 9.3 days 

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
15L
INVEST
16L
PETER
17L
ROSE
90S
INVEST
90W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
99W
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right)
Region (below)
40.2N
43.3W
19.8N
64.0W
21.2N
36.6W
9.9S
82.7E
12.8N
117.1E
9.5N
27.5W
10.4N
153.5E
TC LatLon (left)
Region (below)
Alabama
8-2-0
7-3-7
Alabama
Antigua
4-4-4
Antigua
Any Land
7-0-0
63-45-18 ▲▲
4-1-0
7-3-0
67-20-2
39-21-19
56-36-16
Any Land
Arkansas
4-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
1-1-0
Azores
Bahamas
Islands
24-17-15 ▲▲
6-5-5
Bahamas
Islands
Barbados Barbados
Barbuda
7-5-5
Barbuda
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
14-11-7
2-2-0
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
2-0-0
2-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
11-3-0
11-6-0
China
Connecticut
5-2-0
4-4-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
8-5-3
7-5-0
Cuba
Dominica Dominica
Dominican
Republic
5-0-0
9-4-4
Dominican
Republic
Europe
23-0-0
9-0-0
8-0-0
9-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
6-1-0
4-0-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
5-5-2
2-0-0
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
15-13-11
10-8-4
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
3-2-0
4-4-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
5-3-2
4-0-0
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
11-9-8
10-8-4
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
9-5-2
4-4-4
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Florida
14-13-9
11-8-4
Florida
Georgia
9-3-1
1-0-0
Georgia
Greenland
2-0-0
2-0-0
Greenland
Grenada Grenada
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe
Guam
or w/i 1deg
7-4-3
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti
5-0-0
5-4-0
Haiti
Hawaii Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong
1-0-0
1-1-0
Hong Kong
Iceland
7-0-0
1-0-0
Iceland
India India
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
15L
INVEST
16L
PETER
17L
ROSE
90S
INVEST
90W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
99W
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)
Jamaica
2-0-0
Jamaica
Japan
13-4-1
Japan
Long Island
3-2-0
4-4-0
Long Island
Louisiana
5-3-1
5-4-0
Louisiana
Madagascar
2-0-0
Madagascar
Maine
8-2-0
6-12-0
Maine
Martinique
2-0-0
Martinique
Maryland
6-0-0
1-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
6-3-0
4-4-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
5-3-0
Mexico
Mississippi
4-0-0
5-5-2
Mississippi
New Brunswick
9-0-0
6-0-0
New Brunswick
New England
9-3-0
6-4-0
New England
New Jersey
4-0-0
New Jersey
New York State
9-2-0
6-4-0
New York State
Newfoundland
18-7-0
3-1-0
Newfoundland
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
15-9-3
7-4-0
North Carolina
North Korea North Korea
Nova Scotia
10-6-0
Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania
5-0-0
2-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines
17-3-0
19-13-8
Philippines
Prince Edward
Island
4-1-0
Prince Edward
Island
PSU
or w/i 1deg
3-0-0
2-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico
3-1-1
5-4-4
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
6-3-0
4-4-0
S New England
South Carolina
5-1-0
1-0-0
South Carolina
South Korea
1-1-0
South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
St. Lucia
12-0-0
St. Lucia
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
1-1-0
St. Vincent &
Grenadines
Taiwan
5-3-0
Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
4-1-0
4-0-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
6-0-0
3-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
3-2-1
1-0-0
Texas
Turks & Caicos
Islands
9-5-3
Turks & Caicos
Islands
USA
26-23-12
13-11-7
USA
Vietnam
48-13-2
6-2-0
Vietnam
Virginia
8-1-0
1-0-0
Virginia
Region (above)
TC LatLon (right)
40.0N
43.0W
19.0N
64.0W
21.0N
36.0W
9.0S
82.0E
12.0N
117.0E
9.0N
27.0W
10.0N
153.0E
Region (above)
TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Green
Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (right)
15L
INVEST
16L
PETER
17L
ROSE
90S
INVEST
90W
INVEST
98L
INVEST
99W
INVEST
Basin, TC#, and
TC Name (left)