Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Page created July 2009.
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Mon Oct 12 21:22:56 UTC 2026
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
| Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity |
| 27W-KOGUMA | 1 | Japan (2% ▽) @ 56 hr | | |
|
| 28W-TWENTYEIGH | 1 | Japan (15%) @ 5.9 days | Japan (10% △) @ 5.9 days | Taiwan (3%) @ 5.6 days |
| 2 | China (9%) @ 6.8 days | Taiwan (5%) @ 5.6 days | Philippines (2%) @ 4.9 days |
| 3 | Taiwan (5%) @ 5.6 days | Philippines (4%) @ 4.9 days | Japan (1%) @ 5.9 days |
|
| 96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (16%) @ 9.1 days | Philippines (12%) @ 9.1 days | Philippines (7%) @ 9.1 days |
| 2 | Guam or w/i 1deg (6%) @ 5.1 days | Japan (3%) @ 10 days | Vietnam (2%) |
| 3 | China (6%) @ 12 days | Vietnam (2%) | Guam or w/i 1deg (2%) @ 5.1 days |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
