Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world


Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center, and the Florida SUS/BOG.


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Last updated: Mon Aug 29 04:44:25 UTC 2016

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
Storm
Rank
Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity
Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity
WPAC-LIONROCK
1
Japan (7% ▼▼) @ 65 hr
Japan (2% ▼) @ 65 hr
WPAC-LIONROCK
2
China (1% )
EP14-MADELINE
1
Hawaii (8% ) @ 4.1 days
Hawaii (1%) @ 4.1 days
EP13-LESTER
1
Hawaii (2%)
AL09-NINE
1
Florida (59%) @ 38 hr
Florida (29%) @ 38 hr
Cuba (12%) @ 3 hr
AL09-NINE
2
Cuba (56%) @ 3 hr
Cuba (23%) @ 3 hr
Florida (10%) @ 38 hr
AL09-NINE
3
North Carolina (23%) @ 3.2 days
Texas (8%) @ 3.3 days
Mississippi (3%) @ 3.6 days
AL08-EIGHT
1
Canadian Maritimes (24% ) @ 3.2 days
North Carolina (5% ) @ 49 hr
North Carolina (1%) @ 49 hr
AL08-EIGHT
2
Europe (23%) @ 8.5 days
Canadian Maritimes (5% ) @ 3.2 days
AL08-EIGHT
3
North Carolina (9% ) @ 49 hr
New Jersey (3% ) @ 31 hr
AL07-GASTON
1
Europe (26%) @ 6.2 days
North Carolina (2%) @ 10 days
AL07-GASTON
2
Iceland (4%) @ 4.6 days
Azores (2%) @ 4.2 days
AL07-GASTON
3
Azores (4%) @ 4.2 days
Canadian Maritimes (1%) @ 3.1 days
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.


Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
EP14
MADELINE
EP13
LESTER
AL09
NINE
AL08
EIGHT
AL07
GASTON
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map marker (left)
TC LatLon (right)/
Region (below)
30.5N
141.8E
17.4N
143.1W
17.9N
126.4W
23.4N
82.7W
32.2N
72.1W
30.6N
55.2W
TC LatLon (left)/
Region (below)
Alabama
18-6-1
Alabama
Arkansas
8-0-0
Arkansas
Australia Australia
Azores
4-2-0
Azores
Belize Belize
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
4-3-1
6-2-0
Bermuda
or w/i 1 deg
California California
Canadian
Maritimes
7-1-0
24-5-0
3-1-0
Canadian
Maritimes
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
1-0-0
2-0-0
Chemung, NY
or w/i 1deg
China
1-0-0
China
Connecticut
1-0-0
1-1-0
Connecticut
Costa Rica Costa Rica
Cuba
56-23-12
Cuba
Dominican
Republic
1-0-0
Dominican
Republic
Europe
8-0-0
23-0-0
26-0-0
Europe
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
11-4-0
FL Big Bend
83W-85W
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
16-5-2
FL East Coast
PBI-DAB
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
63-30-17
FL Keys
or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast
DAB North
11-3-0
FL NE Coast
DAB North
Florida
59-29-10
Florida
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
14-7-0
FL Panhandle
west of 85W
FL South
of 27N
37-17-9
FL South
of 27N
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
21-7-2
FL West Coast
FMY-29N
Georgia
23-4-0
1-0-0
Georgia
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
EP14
MADELINE
EP13
LESTER
AL09
NINE
AL08
EIGHT
AL07
GASTON
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)
Greenland
4-0-0
4-0-0
Greenland
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Guam
or w/i 1deg
Haiti Haiti
Hawaii
8-1-0
2-0-0
Hawaii
Honduras Honduras
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Iceland
3-0-0
4-0-0
Iceland
India India
Jamaica Jamaica
Japan
7-2-0 ▼▼
Japan
Long Island
2-0-0
1-1-0
Long Island
Louisiana
11-8-3
Louisiana
Maine
5-1-0
5-0-0
Maine
Maryland
3-0-0
1-0-0
Maryland
Massachusetts
5-0-0
5-3-0
Massachusetts
Mexico
7-4-1
Mexico
Mississippi
14-3-3
Mississippi
New England
7-1-0
8-3-0
New England
New Jersey
3-3-0
New Jersey
Nicaragua Nicaragua
North Carolina
23-5-0
9-5-1
3-2-0
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
3-0-0
3-0-0
Pennsylvania
Philippines Philippines
PSU
or w/i 1deg
1-0-0
1-0-0
PSU
or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
1-0-0
1-0-0
Rhode Island
S New England
5-0-0
5-3-0
S New England
South Carolina
18-1-0
3-1-0
1-0-0
South Carolina
South Korea South Korea
Sri Lanka Sri Lanka
Taiwan Taiwan
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
7-4-0
Tallahassee
or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee
12-0-0
1-0-0
Tennessee
Texas
12-8-2
Texas
USA
77-43-15
16-7-0
1-0-0
USA
Vietnam Vietnam
Virginia
7-0-0
2-0-0
Virginia
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (right)
30.5N
141.8E
17.0N
143.0W
17.0N
126.0W
23.0N
82.0W
32.0N
72.0W
30.0N
55.0W
Region (above)/
TC LatLon (left)
Map marker (right)
Magenta
Red
Orange
Light
Orange
Yellow
Light
Green
Map marker (left)
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (right)
wpac
LIONROCK
EP14
MADELINE
EP13
LESTER
AL09
NINE
AL08
EIGHT
AL07
GASTON
Basin, TC #, and
TC Name (left)