Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world

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Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu

Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.

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[ MOE MAIN PAGE | TCPROB MAIN PAGE | HELP/DOCUMENTATION | IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER ]

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Last updated: Mon May 19 04:46:44 UTC 2025

Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:

Storm	Rank	Landfall/Crossing at Any Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Hurricane Intensity	Landfall/Crossing at Major Hurricane Intensity

No current TCs with climatological landfall probability ≥ 1%.

*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.

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Full breakdown of landfall probabilities for
each storm/region combination:

Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Map icon (right)	Map icon (left)
TC LatLon (right) Region (below)	TC LatLon (left) Region (below)
Alabama	Alabama
Antigua	Antigua
Any Land	Any Land
Arkansas	Arkansas
Australia	Australia
Azores	Azores
Bahamas Islands	Bahamas Islands
Barbados	Barbados
Barbuda	Barbuda
Belize	Belize
Bermuda or w/i 1 deg	Bermuda or w/i 1 deg
California	California
Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg	Chemung, NY or w/i 1deg
China	China
Connecticut	Connecticut
Costa Rica	Costa Rica
Cuba	Cuba
Dominica	Dominica
Dominican Republic	Dominican Republic
Europe	Europe
FL Big Bend 83W-85W	FL Big Bend 83W-85W
FL East Coast PBI-DAB	FL East Coast PBI-DAB
FL Keys or w/i 2deg	FL Keys or w/i 2deg
FL NE Coast DAB North	FL NE Coast DAB North
FL Panhandle west of 85W	FL Panhandle west of 85W
FL South of 27N	FL South of 27N
FL West Coast FMY-29N	FL West Coast FMY-29N
Florida	Florida
Georgia	Georgia
Greenland	Greenland
Grenada	Grenada
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe
Guam or w/i 1deg	Guam or w/i 1deg
Haiti	Haiti
Hawaii	Hawaii
Honduras	Honduras
Hong Kong	Hong Kong
Iceland	Iceland
India	India
Map icon (right)	Map icon (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)
Jamaica	Jamaica
Japan	Japan
Long Island	Long Island
Louisiana	Louisiana
Madagascar	Madagascar
Maine	Maine
Martinique	Martinique
Maryland	Maryland
Massachusetts	Massachusetts
Mexico	Mexico
Mississippi	Mississippi
New Brunswick	New Brunswick
New England	New England
New Jersey	New Jersey
New York State	New York State
Newfoundland	Newfoundland
Nicaragua	Nicaragua
North Carolina	North Carolina
North Korea	North Korea
Nova Scotia	Nova Scotia
Pennsylvania	Pennsylvania
Philippines	Philippines
Prince Edward Island	Prince Edward Island
PSU or w/i 1deg	PSU or w/i 1deg
Puerto Rico	Puerto Rico
Rhode Island	Rhode Island
S New England	S New England
South Carolina	South Carolina
South Korea	South Korea
Sri Lanka	Sri Lanka
St. Lucia	St. Lucia
St. Vincent & Grenadines	St. Vincent & Grenadines
Taiwan	Taiwan
Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg	Tallahassee or w/i 0.5deg
Tennessee	Tennessee
Texas	Texas
Turks & Caicos Islands	Turks & Caicos Islands
USA	USA
Vietnam	Vietnam
Virginia	Virginia
Region (above) TC LatLon (right)	Region (above) TC LatLon (left)
Map icon (right)	Map iconr (left)
Basin, TC#, and TC Name (right)	Basin, TC#, and TC Name (left)