Tropical Cyclone Track Probability
Historical probability of a tropical cyclone crossing various locations around the world
Robert Hart, Florida State University Meteorology, rhart@fsu.edu
Funding provided by Risk Prediction Initiative (RPI) of the Bermuda Institute of Oceanic Sciences (BIOS),
and the Florida Catastrophic Risk Managment Center.
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Last updated: Tue Mar 25 03:48:46 UTC 2025
Climatologically most likely landfall region(s) for current storms, and
mean time from latest position to that landfall if it were to occur*:
| Storm | Rank | Landfall/Crossing at
Any Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at
Hurricane Intensity | Landfall/Crossing at Major
Hurricane Intensity |
| 26S-TWENTYSIX | 1 | Australia (6% ▲) | Madagascar (3%) | |
| 2 | Madagascar (3%) | | |
|
| 27S-TWENTYSEVE | 1 | Australia (18% ▼) @ 3.0 days | Australia (1%) @ 3.0 days | |
|
| 93S-INVEST | 1 | Australia (77%) @ 25 hr | Australia (18%) @ 25 hr | Australia (7%) @ 25 hr |
|
| 96W-INVEST | 1 | Philippines (72% ▲▲) @ 43 hr | Philippines (7% ▲) @ 43 hr | Philippines (4% △) @ 43 hr |
| 2 | Vietnam (19% ▲▲) @ 8.8 days | Vietnam (2% △) @ 8.8 days | Vietnam (1%) @ 8.8 days |
| 3 | Taiwan (9% ▲) @ 6.8 days | China (1%) | |
*Important note: These statistics ignore completely the current intensity or motion of the storm
and are based solely on a climatology based on the current position. They are prone to large forecast error.
Users should use only official forecasts for decisions, such as those provided by NHC, JTWC, and CHC.
