NOTE: The probabilities on this page are experimental and should not be considered an official forecast.
Q: The image on the main page shows a genesis probability for a storm that has already been classified by NHC. Why?
A: The images are created based on an algorithm to objectively identify a TC in the models' forecast fields. If a genesis forecast appears on the images after a TC has been classified by NHC, this means that the model output does not meet the algorithm's criteria of a TC at the analysis time. Instead, it meets the criteria for a TC at some later time in the forecast cycle. This scenario is most common when there are weak active TCs.
Q: If a model indicates genesis for a storm and the model initialization time is after the storm has been classified by NHC, will those forecasts go into the verification statistics?
A: No, those forecasts are discarded.
Q: There is a well-defined tropical wave in the basin that appears to be on the verge of being classified as a TC. Why do the images state that no model-indicated genesis events are forecast?
A: The model output does not meet the algorithm's criteria for TC genesis. Check the text output pages to see if one of the algorithm's threshold values is not met.
Q: Does the algorithm identify forecasts of subtropical cyclone genesis?
A: No, the algorithm is designed to only identify tropical cyclone genesis in the model forecast fields.