Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of record-setting Hurricane Ophelia, which underwent tropical transition, rapid intensification as a TC in a very unusual geographic region,
extratropical transition (including warm seclusion) that led to the strongest winds in Ireland in recorded history, and finally occlusion as a decaying cold-core extratropical cyclone.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2018072300 FV3-GFS: 2018072218
GFS: 2018072300 JMA: 2018072300
NAVGEM: 2018072300 UKM: 2018072212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
ampil12w:2018072300 fifteen15w:2018072300
fourteen14w:2018072300 invest90e:2018072212
invest92c:2018072300 son-tinh11w:2018072300

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest90e:2018072212 invest92c:2018072300

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
cp922018:2018072300 ep902018:2018072218
wp112018:2018072300 wp122018:2018072300
wp132018:2018072300 wp142018:2018072300
wp152018:2018072300 wp962018:2018072200

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2018072300 | 2018072218 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2018072212 | 2018072200 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2018072212 | 2018072200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2018072212 | 2018072200 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2018072212 | 2018072200 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Jul 23 07:57:59 UTC 2018