Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

Note: ECMWF analyses are provided by TIGGE and delayed by 2-3 days by ECMWF.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a forecast of classic extratropical transition of S. Indian Ocean TC Bruce).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2014091912 ECMWF: 2014091612
GFS: 2014092000 NAVGEM: 2014091912
UKM: 2014091918

Current/recent GFDL model output:
edouard06l:2014091912 invest95l:2014091906

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
edouard06l:2014091912 invest95l:2014091906

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
New multi-satellite synthesis
al062014:2014091918 al952014:2014092000
ep172014:2014092000 io982014:2014092000
sh902015:2014091906 wp152014:2014091812
wp162014:2014092000 wp972014:2014091912

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2014091918 | 2014091912 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014091700 | 2014091612 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014091912 | 2014091900 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014091200 | 2014091112 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2014080800 | 2014080712 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Sep 20 05:41:46 UTC 2014