Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015080500 GFS: 2015080506
NAVGEM: 2015080500 UKM: 2015080506

Current/recent GFDL model output:
guillermo09e:2015080506 invest92e:2015080500

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
fourteen14w:2015080412 guillermo09e:2015080506
invest92e:2015080500 invest95l:2015080418
one01p:2015080500 soudelor13w:2015080506

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al952015:2015080500 ep092015:2015080506
ep922015:2015080500 sh012016:2015080500
wp132015:2015080506 wp142015:2015080506

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015080506 | 2015080500 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015080500 | 2015080412 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015080500 | 2015080412 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015080500 | 2015080412 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015080500 | 2015080412 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Aug 5 12:27:53 UTC 2015