Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of record-setting Hurricane Ophelia, which underwent tropical transition, rapid intensification as a TC in a very unusual geographic region,
extratropical transition (including warm seclusion) that led to the strongest winds in Ireland in recorded history, and finally occlusion as a decaying cold-core extratropical cyclone.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2018032212 GFS: 2018032218
JMA: 2018032218 NAVGEM: 2018032212
UKM: 2018032212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest94p:2018032200 invest95p:2018032218
invest96w:2018032218 marcus15s:2018032218

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
sh152018:2018032218 sh162018:2018032218
sh942018:2018032206 sh952018:2018032218
sh962018:2018032218 wp962018:2018032218

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2018032218 | 2018032212 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2018032212 | 2018032200 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2018032212 | 2018032200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2018032212 | 2018032200 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2018032212 | 2018032200 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Fri Mar 23 00:52:18 UTC 2018