Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case the lifecycle over 10 days of UKMET analyses
of major hurricane Blanca showing prototypical TC growth and decay without any midlatitude interaction).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015070700 GFS: 2015070706
NAVGEM: 2015070700 UKM: 2015070706

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest95e:2015070600 invest96e:2015070706

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chan-hom09w:2015070706 invest95e:2015070600
invest96e:2015070706 linfa10w:2015070706

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
cp912015:2015070712 ep952015:2015070606
ep962015:2015070712 sh252016:2015070600
wp092015:2015070712 wp102015:2015070712

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015070706 | 2015070700 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070700 | 2015070612 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070700 | 2015070612 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070700 | 2015070612 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015070700 | 2015070612 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Tue Jul 7 17:23:42 UTC 2015