Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2020012200 ECMWF: 2020012206 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2020012212 JMA: 2020012206
NAVGEM: 2020012212 UKMET: 2020012200

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest94s:2020012206 nine09s:2020012212

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
sh942020:2020012118 sh952020:2020012200
sh972020:2020012212

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2019121112 | 2019121106 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2020012200 | 2020012112 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2020012200 | 2020012112 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2020012200 | 2020012112 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2020012200 | 2020012112 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Wed Jan 22 19:23:46 UTC 2020