Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016083100 GFS: 2016083106
NAVGEM: 2016083100 UKM: 2016083106

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08l:2016083012 gaston07l:2016083106
lester13e:2016083106 madeline14e:2016083106

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eight08l:2016083100 gaston07l:2016083100
invest94w:2016083106 lester13e:2016083106
madeline14e:2016083106 nine09l:2016083106

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al072016:2016083112 al082016:2016083112
al092016:2016083112 cp922016:2016083106
cp932016:2016083106 ep132016:2016083112
ep142016:2016083106 wp122016:2016083018
wp152016:2016083112 wp942016:2016083112

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016083106 | 2016083100 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016083100 | 2016083012 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016083100 | 2016083012 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016083100 | 2016083012 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016083100 | 2016083012 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Aug 31 15:53:04 UTC 2016