Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams (in this case a GFS ensemble forecast of the extratropical transition of a
WPAC Typhoon that eventually becomes an intense warm seclusion extratropical cyclone).

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015052600 GFS: 2015052600
NAVGEM: 2015052512 UKM: 2015052600

Current/recent GFDL model output:

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep902015:2015052412 ep912015:2015052518

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic model intercomparison: [ 2015052600 | 2015052518 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015052512 | 2015052500 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015052512 | 2015052500 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015052512 | 2015052500 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble intercomparison: [ 2015052512 | 2015052500 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Tue May 26 07:18:20 UTC 2015