Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of intense typhoon Jongdari making landfall in Japan which had a Sandy-like track at high latitude, may have started (but likely did not complete) extratropical transition,
and had at least three instances of Fujiwhara interaction causing looping in the TC track before and after landfall.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2018091912 FV3-GFS: 2018091906
GFS: 2018091912 JMA: 2018091906
NAVGEM: 2018091912 UKM: 2018091900

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al062018:2018091812 al102018:2018091900
ep172018:2018091900 ep192018:2018091912
ep942018:2018091912 io972018:2018091912
io982018:2018091912 wp922018:2018091912

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2018091912 | 2018091906 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2018091900 | 2018091812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2018091912 | 2018091900 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2018091900 | 2018091812 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2018091900 | 2018091812 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Sep 19 20:19:39 UTC 2018