Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams. In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2015100512 GFS: 2015100512
NAVGEM: 2015100500 UKM: 2015100506

Current/recent GFDL model output:
eight08c:2015100512 invest91l:2015100512
invest99c:2015100512 joaquin11l:2015100212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
choi-wan23w:2015100506 eight08c:2015100500
invest91l:2015100506 invest99c:2015100506
joaquin11l:2015100506 mujigae22w:2015100500

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al112015:2015100512 al902015:2015100506
al912015:2015100512 cp072015:2015100512
cp082015:2015100518 cp992015:2015100518
ep942015:2015100506 ep952015:2015100418
wp222015:2015100512 wp232015:2015100512

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2015100506 | 2015100500 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2015100500 | 2015100412 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2015100500 | 2015100412 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2015100500 | 2015100412 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2015100500 | 2015100412 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Oct 5 18:46:33 UTC 2015