Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of previously catastrophic Category 5 hurricane Maria undergoing a classic extratropical transition while weakening.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2017101700 GFS: 2017101700
JMA: 2017101700 NAVGEM: 2017101700
UKM: 2017101612

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest91e:2017101612 invest92l:2017101606
khanun24w:2017101606 lan25w:2017101700

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest91e:2017101612 invest92l:2017101606

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al172017:2017101606 al922017:2017101700
ep912017:2017101700 io982017:2017101706
wp242017:2017101606 wp252017:2017101706
wp932017:2017101700 wp942017:2017101700

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2017101700 | 2017101618 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2017101700 | 2017101612 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2017101700 | 2017101612 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2017101700 | 2017101612 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2017101700 | 2017101612 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Tue Oct 17 09:14:33 UTC 2017