Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane, to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2019092212 ECMWF: 2019092218 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2019092218 JMA: 2019092218
NAVGEM: 2019092218 UKMET: 2019092212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest90l:2019092218 invest96a:2019092218
invest99l:2019092200 jerry10l:2019092218
karen12l:2019092218 kiko13e:2019092218
lorena15e:2019092200 mario14e:2019092206

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest90l:2019092218 invest99l:2019092200
jerry10l:2019092218 karen12l:2019092218
kiko13e:2019092218 lorena15e:2019092200

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al102019:2019092218 al122019:2019092218
al132019:2010080812 al902019:2019092218
al992019:2019092118 ep132019:2019092118
ep142019:2019092118 ep152019:2019092118

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2019092218 | 2019092212 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2019092212 | 2019092200 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2019092212 | 2019092200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2019092212 | 2019092200 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2019092212 | 2019092200 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Sep 23 04:49:43 UTC 2019