Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.




Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016092800 GFS: 2016092806
JMA: 2016092806 NAVGEM: 2016092800
UKM: 2016092806

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest97l:2016092806 roslyn18e:2016092806
ulika19e:2016092806

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
chaba21w:2016092806 invest97l:2016092806
invest98w:2016092712 megi20w:2016092800
roslyn18e:2016092806 ulika19e:2016092806

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al972016:2016092806 ep182016:2016092806
ep192016:2016092806 wp202016:2016092800
wp212016:2016092806 wp982016:2016092800

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016092806 | 2016092800 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016092712 | 2016092700 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016092800 | 2016092712 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016092712 | 2016092700 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016092800 | 2016092612 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University
(rhart@fsu.edu)

Jenni Evans
Penn State University
(evans@essc.psu.edu)


This page last updated: Wed Sep 28 13:26:48 UTC 2016