Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of record-setting Hurricane Ophelia, which underwent tropical transition, rapid intensification as a TC in a very unusual geographic region,
extratropical transition (including warm seclusion) that led to the strongest winds in Ireland in recorded history, and finally occlusion as a decaying cold-core extratropical cyclone.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2018062300 FV3-GFS: 2018062300
GFS: 2018062306 JMA: 2018062306
NAVGEM: 2018062306 UKM: 2018061812

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
No recent NCEP HWRF runs

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep942018:2018062300 ep952018:2018062306

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2018062306 | 2018062300 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2018062300 | 2018062212 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2018062300 | 2018062212 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2018062300 | 2018062212 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2018062300 | 2018062212 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Jun 23 13:37:07 UTC 2018