Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of (now decaying) Supertyphoon Noru which has been tracked for nearly four weeks, underwent a wild lifecycle
(track and intensity) including multiple periods of rapid intensity change and Fujiwhara interaction with Tropical Storm Kulap.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2017081900 GFS: 2017081906
JMA: 2017081906 NAVGEM: 2017081900
UKM: 2017081900

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
harvey09l:2017081906 invest91c:2017081906
invest92l:2017081906 invest93e:2017081806
kenneth13e:2017081906 thirteen13e:2017081818

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al092017:2017081900 al922017:2017081900
cp912017:2017081912 ep132017:2017081912
ep932017:2017081812 wp932017:2017081912

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2017081906 | 2017081900 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2017081900 | 2017081812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2017081900 | 2017081812 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2017081900 | 2017081812 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2017081900 | 2017081812 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Aug 19 16:37:15 UTC 2017