Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of (now decaying) Supertyphoon Noru which has been tracked for nearly four weeks, underwent a wild lifecycle
(track and intensity) including multiple periods of rapid intensity change and Fujiwhara interaction with Tropical Storm Kulap.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2017092212 GFS: 2017092218
JMA: 2017092218 NAVGEM: 2017092212
UKM: 2017092212

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest90w:2017092212 invest98e:2017092218
invest98l:2017092212 jose12l:2017092212
lee14l:2017092218 maria15l:2017092212

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
invest98e:2017092218 invest98l:2017092212
jose12l:2017092212 lee14l:2017092218

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
al122017:2017092218 al142017:2017092218
al152017:2017092218 al982017:2017092212
ep982017:2017092218 wp902017:2017092212

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2017092218 | 2017092212 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2017092212 | 2017092200 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2017092212 | 2017092200 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2017092212 | 2017092200 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2017092212 | 2017092200 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Sat Sep 23 00:20:06 UTC 2017