Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2023092012 ECMWF: 2023092018
GFS: 2023092100 JMA: 2023092018
NAVGEM: 2023092018 UKMET: 2023092100

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
kenneth13e:2023092100 nigel15l:2023092100

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
kenneth13e:2023092100 nigel15l:2023092100

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2023092100 | 2023092018 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2023082900 | 2023082812 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2023082900 | 2023082812 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2023092012 | 2023092000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2023082300 | 2023082212 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Sep 21 08:08:38 UTC 2023