Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GFS analysis of Cyclone Debbie which unfortunately devastated parts of Queensland and New South Wales, Australia.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2017072612 GFS: 2017072618
JMA: 2017072618 NAVGEM: 2017072612
UKM: 2017072612

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eleven11w:2017072606 greg07e:2017072612
hilary09e:2017072618 invest93w:2017072618
invest99w:2017072518 irwin10e:2017072618
kulap09w:2017072600 nesat11w:2017072618

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
greg07e:2017072612 hilary09e:2017072618

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep072017:2017072618 ep092017:2017072618
ep102017:2017072618 wp072017:2017072612
wp082017:2017072518 wp092017:2017072612
wp112017:2017072612 wp922017:2017072612
wp932017:2017072612 wp992017:2017072606

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2017072618 | 2017072612 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2017072612 | 2017072600 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2017072612 | 2017072600 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2017072612 | 2017072600 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2017072612 | 2017072600 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Jul 27 02:20:06 UTC 2017