Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the ECMWF analysis of record intense hurricane Dorian's lifecycle from Atlantic wave to rapidly intensifying to category 5 hurricane,
to intense extratropically transitioning TC as it makes landfall at category 2 intensity in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2020093000 ECMWF: 2020093006 (RESTRICTED)
GFS: 2020093006 JMA: 2020093006
NAVGEM: 2020093006 UKMET: 2020093000

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
eighteen18e:2020092912 invest98w:2020092918
kujira15w:2020093006 marie18e:2020093006

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep182020:2020093006 wp152020:2020093012

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2020093006 | 2020093000 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2020093000 | 2020092912 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2020093000 | 2020092912 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2020093000 | 2020092912 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2020093000 | 2020092912 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Wed Sep 30 14:37:19 UTC 2020