Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016102400 GFS: 2016102400
JMA: 2016102400 NAVGEM: 2016102400
UKM: 2016102400

Current/recent GFDL model output:
invest91e:2016102300 seymour20e:2016102400

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
invest91e:2016102300 invest99b:2016102400
seymour20e:2016102400 twenty20e:2016102318

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
ep202016:2016102400 ep912016:2016102306

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016102400 | 2016102318 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016102312 | 2016102300 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016102312 | 2016102300 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016102012 | 2016102000 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016102012 | 2016102000 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Mon Oct 24 08:40:26 UTC 2016