Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams. In this case, the UKMET analysis of extratropical transition of Ignacio and "landfall" near the Alaskan border as a weakening extratropical storm.

Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2016072800 GFS: 2016072806
NAVGEM: 2016072800 UKM: 2016072806

Current/recent GFDL model output:
frank07e:2016072806 georgette08e:2016072706
invest91e:2016072806 invest96l:2016072806

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
frank07e:2016072806 georgette08e:2016072706
invest91e:2016072806 invest96l:2016072806

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2016072806 | 2016072800 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2016072800 | 2016072712 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2016072800 | 2016072712 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2016072800 | 2016072712 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2016072800 | 2016072712 ]

Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]

Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University

Jenni Evans
Penn State University

This page last updated: Thu Jul 28 16:18:12 UTC 2016