Cyclone phase evolution: Analyses & Forecasts

This page presents historical, analyzed (current), and model-forecast cyclone phase diagrams for northwestern hemisphere cyclones
with the goals of improved structural forecasting, structural transition (subtropical/tropical/extratropical), cyclogenesis, and providing measures of structural predictability.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S., please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

To the right are the most recently picked interesting diagrams.
In this case, the GEFS ensemble forecast of hurricane Ernesto's ET following Bermuda landfall.



Latest deterministic model output:
CMC: 2026011512 ECMWF: 2026011512
GFS: 2026011512 JMA: 2026011506
NAVGEM: 2026011512 UKMET: 2026011512

Current/recent NCEP HWRF model output:
dudzai14s:2026011512 invest91w:2026011412
nokaen01w:2026011512 one01w:2026011506

Current/recent NCEP HMON model output:
No recent NCEP HMON runs

Current/recent CIRA/NESDIS AMSU based diagrams:
No recent AMSU retrievals

Ensemble output:
Latest deterministic intercomparison: [ 2026010412 | 2026010406 ]

Latest CMC Ensemble: [ 2026011512 | 2026011500 ]

Latest GFS Ensemble: [ 2026011500 | 2026011412 ]

Latest NGP Ensemble: [ 2026011512 | 2026011500 ]

Latest CMC+GFS+NGP Ensemble: [ 2025122412 | 2025122400 ]


Example phase diagrams from past events: [View]

Help/Docs: [ Docs | AMS02-ppt | AMS02Talk-ppt ]


Page created and maintained by:

Robert Hart
Florida State University


This page last updated: Thu Jan 15 21:10:05 UTC 2026